Scientist predicted swine flu in 2004 – RT special interview
28 April, 2009, 17:22
Five years ago Professor Dmitry Lvov gave a detailed description of how a deadly pandemic flu virus was on the horizon. On Tuesday April 28, 2009, he spoke to RT about the outlook of a swine flu pandemic.
This time, Professor Lvov has provided RT with further explanations and a possible prediction for the current situation.
According to the scientist, who has been studying new and returning viral infections for more than 40 years, influenza viruses are primarily associated with birds. Normally, these viruses circulate in various ecosystems and do not interfere with humans. However, occasional shifts cause these viruses to infect different groups of animals, and even human beings.
“When this happens, different types of viruses may interfere within the same host organism and exchange with their genetic material. Such events create new types of viruses with new characteristics. This is exactly what happened to the swine flu virus in the Western Hemisphere,” said the specialist.
A significant difference between the deadly viruses that caused Spanish flu – which claimed 20-50 million lives at the beginning of the XX century – bird influenza and swine flu, according to Professor Lvov, pertains to their virulence. It is much higher in bird flu, which, fortunately, cannot be transmitted from one human to another. Yet both Spanish and swine influenza viruses are capable of this.
In his opinion, the high numbers of fatalities in Mexico and their absence in the United States could be explained with earlier diagnostics existing in the US, and proper, more intensive treatment of patients.
In addition, the number of cases revealed in the US is not to be compared with some 1500 diagnosed in Mexico.
“Fifteen hundred cases announced for Mexico are more likely to be 150,000 of those infected in total, and such numbers of patients would be virtually impossible to properly take care of,” Professor Lvov explained.
According to the professor, should we face the beginning of a pandemic, the process is going to develop instantly, taking the mobility of people in the modern world into account. However, he has pointed out that, at the moment, it is not completely clear whether this virus possesses a pandemic potential.
The scientist particularly stressed that, “The sooner we understand that the present cataclysm is as serious an earthquake or tsunami, and that there is nothing people can do to prevent it, the better. Still, we should do our best to minimize the possible consequences of this situation and try to make better prognoses for such events in future.”
Speaking of the potential vaccine, Professor Lvov noted that he did not doubt it would be created, but not sooner than in six months. Also, in his opinion, the existing vaccines with an H1N1 component might be useful in the case of swine flu, too.
“These antigens are not identical, but such vaccines may prove to be useful in this case. It is also possible that the reason why the current situation in the United States can better be explained by the high number of those vaccinated against common flu,” said the scientist.
Professor Lvov is sure that no quarantine measures are able to stop a pandemic, only to slow it down at best.
“Further scenario depends on how actively viruses will be transmitted from one human to another and, in this way, spread over the world,” Professor Lvov added.
Dmitry Lvov: I’ve been working on the issue of the new and reoccurring infections including the ones associated with flu for 40 years. Four of my H5N1 bird flu forecasts had been fulfilled. However I work with all the other flu virus emergencies which may arise anywhere on Earth at any time. It’s hard to say whether or not we are seeing the beginning of a global pandemic. With modern means of transportation, it may take the virus mere hours to reach any area of the earth, if the virus has pandemic potential. This potential, however, does not look evident to me at this moment. I think that this is highly possible, and if the process goes along this line – God only knows – the situation is going to be very bad.
RT: Fourteen million people die every year from various flu viruses, 30,000 here in Russia – Should we be more concerned about this outbreak?
D.L.: I wouldn’t be surprised if we hear an hour later that someone became infected in any country of the world. The pandemic disease is developing at the moment, which means the spread of the disease around the entire world. This process is extremely fast.
RT: How similar is it to the Spanish flu pandemic which killed millions in 1918?
D.L.: All flu viruses are associated with birds first of all. This connection between birds and the virus has lasted perhaps for hundreds of millions of years. They have been circulating in nature’s ecosystems for all this time independently from humans or pigs and other animals. However, these populations have caused an infection outbreak in other species from time to time. As a result such outbreaks may cause the process of the exchange of the virus genes which infect the cells of different animals simultaneously. This virus is more resistible but I don’t think it will have the same impact.
RT: Why does the flu virus mutate so easily?
D.L.: It’s the exchange of genes. The virus genome is made of eight bricks, or segments of genes. If two different viruses reproduce in one cell, these segments of one genome can pass into the other one producing the virus this way. This is exactly what has happened to the swine flu virus in the New World.
RT: Why does this appear to be more dangerous?
D.L.: The virus appears to be quite resistant. For now many have forgotten about bird flu. The panic was huge, and quite rightly so. If that virus – the H5N1 bird flu – had caused a pandemic, it had a higher virulence potential than the Spanish flu of 1918, which claimed 50 million lives, and higher than that of the current swine flu. The only difference is that swine flu can be transmitted from human to human, and bird flu cannot. Today, at least.
RT: How soon will it take for a vaccination to become available?
D.L.: The virus is already there, and it’s going to take about half a year to make a vaccine for it. For the next six months, while the new vaccine is not ready, I would recommend undergoing inoculation with existing commercial vaccines that contain the H1N1 component. Though it is different from the antigen point of view, it still might be useful, I think. Perhaps the fact that no deaths have been registered in the USA, where the percentage of commercial vaccine inoculated people is very high, proves just that.
RT: Why is it that some patients die from swine flu and others recover easily?
D.L.: If I knew the answer to this question I’d definitely win the Nobel Prize next year, if not this year. However there is an explanation to this fact. We know that high death rates have been observed in Mexico but not a single death has been registered among patients in the United States. I believe the early detection of illness and its intensive and efficient treatment make the difference. I believe the United States does it better than Mexico. Moreover the United States have detected a mere several dozen cases of this illness which they could treat individually. But Mexico has detected at least 1,500 patients, which actually means at least 150,000 people have been infected. Doctors cannot handle such a huge number of patients individually, and their level of medical care is obviously lower. But patients with severe forms of flu require intensive care treatment. They have to be placed in the intensive care wards where qualified medical crews can save their lives.
RT: What do you advise people to do?
D.L.: Molecular and genetic studies of the genome of this virus, as well as direct in vitro observations, show that the virus is resistant to the effect of an anti-virus medicine called Remantadine. There will be no effect when using this treatment. As for another treatment, Tamiflu, or Oseltamivir as it is also known, the virus is vulnerable to it. With timely treatment, we think it is possible to reduce the acuteness of the symptoms.
RT: Can anyone be immune to this virus?
D.L.: Whether you’re Russian, an Arab or a Jew you are equally vulnerable to the same diseases.
But in countries with lower living standards and inferior healthcare, the epidemic is going to have a harder impact. For example, an outbreak of tuberculosis is indeed more likely in countries and populations where living standards are lower, with undernourishment, lower immunity, and so on. In the case of flu, this doesn’t apply.
RT: What would you like to see global community do to address the problem?
D.L.: It is like trying to invent a way to delay or prevent the eruption of a volcano or a tsunami, or to prevent an earthquake. The sooner we all – including those who make the decisions – realize that this is a natural disaster just like a hurricane or an earthquake, and there is nothing humans can do about it, the better. What we must do is try to predict such phenomena and do are best to mitigate the consequences.
RT: Is Russia ready for a global pandemic?
D.L.: I am confident – and that’s the point of view of myself and many serious scientists around the world – that no quarantine measures have ever helped anyone to stop or prevent any epidemic anywhere. I already said that it’s like a tsunami or a volcano eruption. Delaying it for a few hours or maybe day is possible, but it's not preventable.
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