US engagement with Myanmar falters

By Brian McCartan

BANGKOK - After the only outcomes of a visit to Myanmar by a high-level United States diplomat were "profound" disappointment over its election preparations and a stronger line over its nuclear links with North Korea, President Barack Obama on Friday formally extended sanctions against the country.

Washington's extension of the sanctions followed the visit of US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific Kurt Campbell to Naypyidaw, the capital, on May 9 for a two-day visit. Campbell met top officials such as Foreign Minister Nyan Win, Information Minister Kyaw Hsan, Science and Technology Minister U Thaung - the point man for US-Myanmar engagement - and Labor Minister U Aung Kyi.

Charged with assessing Myanmar's preparations for elections to be held on an as-yet unspecified date this year - its first polls since 1991 - Campbell also met members of the Union Election Commission, officials of the Union Solidarity and Development Association (USDA) and other government-affiliated political parties. On May 10, Campbell travelled to Yangon, where he met senior leaders of the opposition National League for Democracy (NLD), representatives of major ethnic groups and pro-democracy leader Aung San Suu Kyi

Campbell had earlier said he would only visit the country if he could meet opposition members and Suu Kyi. He previously met the 64-year-old last November, when he became the highest ranking US diplomat to visit Myanmar in 14 years.

Before his visit, during a press conference in Bangkok on May 9, Campbell said the US was concerned with the lead-up to the elections. "We're troubled by much of what we've seen and we have very real concerns about the elections laws and the environment that's been created."

Campbell's meetings in Naypyidaw seem to have only confirmed the US's worst fears, with the envoy telling reporters in Yangon that he was "profoundly disappointed" in the junta's approach to the elections.

"Unfortunately, the regime has chosen to move ahead unilaterally - without consultation from key stakeholders - towards elections planned for this year," he said. "As a direct result, what we have seen to date leads us to believe that these elections will lack international legitimacy."

The NLD was officially dissolved on May 7, two days before Campbell's arrival, after it declined to meet a May 6 registration deadline stipulated by new election laws. The laws, which ban individuals serving prison sentences from being members, would have forced the party to oust Aung San Suu Kyi as its chairwoman due to her continued house arrest.

The party's headquarters in Yangon remains open and members are calling for a boycott of the vote. Some 25 senior members of the party have decided to form a new party and seek registration with the government, though no decision has been made on their participation in the polls. The government is yet to announce a date for the vote, though reports suggest it could be in October.

Campbell also noted the junta's continued pressure on the country's ethnic minority groups to disarm before the elections. "The regime has ratcheted up the pressure on Burma's [Myanmar's] ethnic groups in preparation for this year's elections, forcing countless innocent civilians to flee. Burma cannot move forward while the government itself persists in launching attacks against its own people to force compliance with a proposal its ethnic groups cannot accept." The last sentence refers to the regime's proposal that the armed wings of ethnic groups relinquished to army control before the vote, a move many groups say would deprive them of leverage against a regime that has frequently resorted to force.

Campbell also questioned Myanmar's relations with North Korea and its commitment to implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1874, which among other things bans the export of weapons and nuclear technology from North Korea and authorizes member states to search suspected cargos. Campbell mentioned "recent developments" that were likely related to reports of North Korean involvement in Myanmar's nuclear program.

North Korean military assistance to Myanmar in the past has consisted of hardware including artillery and surface-to-surface missiles. Myanmar-exile magazine The Irrawaddy claimed on May 10 that the junta had purchased mid-range missiles and rocket launchers from North Korea during the Myanmar New Year in April. In addition, the magazine claimed, "equipment necessary to build a nuclear capability was reportedly among imported military supplies from North Korea".

Analysts believe North Korea is assisting the generals with a nuclear program that includes the development of weapons. Two nuclear reactors are believed to be under construction in Myanmar. One, at Naung Laing near the town of Pyin Oo Lwin in central Mandalay Division, is being constructed with North Korean help. Several thousand Myanmar military personnel have undergone nuclear training in Russia and North Korea in recent years. Desmond Ball, a defense analyst at Australia National University, believes the reactor could be online in 2012 and a deliverable weapon could be developed by 2020.

In order to build international confidence in Myanmar's commitment to the UN Security Council resolution - imposed on Pyongyang in 2009 after conducted an underground nuclear test - Campbell asked the regime to put in place a "transparent process".

"Without such a process, the United States maintains the right to take independent action within the relevant frameworks established by the international community," said Campbell. The US had applauded Myanmar in July for refusing to allow a North Korean-registered ship believed to be carrying weapons to dock, forcing the ship to turn back.

The regime's response to Campbell's statement came in a long, rambling article in the state-run newspaper The New Light of Myanmar on May 12. The report was partly a description of Campbell's meetings with government officials and partly an attempt to justify election laws and paint the NLD's decision to not re-register as misguided.

The article said the new election laws did not target a specific person, a reference to Aung San Suu Kyi, and that the banning of convicts to stand in election is a normal practice in many countries, with all prisoners grouped together, political or criminal. It also said that if the NLD wants to carry out its aim of amending the controversial 2008 constitution, it should have joined the election process and tried to make changes in the new parliament.

The constitution, passed through a referendum that observers say was rigged, cannot be changed without a majority in parliament, something that is almost impossible given the number of seats reserved for the military.

In response to a question on the possibility of independent election monitors, the paper quoted retired Major General Thein Soe, head of the Election Commission, as saying, "the nation has a lot of experience with elections. We do not need election watchdogs to come here. Arrangements have been made to ensure a free and fair election."

Seemingly at odds with this was a request by Information Minister Hsan for unspecified American cooperation supporting the elections. "We would like to receive your kind cooperation so that the election can be held peacefully and successfully."

The New Light of Myanmar article welcomed the Barack Obama administration's engagement policy and called on the US "to show a positive attitude towards our internal affairs such as the drafting of the constitution and measures for holding elections after issuing the necessary laws for democratization process".

Prior to Campbell's visit to Myanmar there was no sign in Congress of a "positive attitude" with for increased pressure on Myanmar's military rulers that reflecting concerns that the Obama administration's seven-month old engagement policy is not reaping the desired benefits.

On May 7, the senate called on the Obama administration to show solidarity with the NLD and consider tighter sanctions on the junta. Senators approved a resolution led by Judd Gregg, a Republican from New Hampshire, requesting the regime enter dialogue with the NLD, free Suu Kyi from house arrest and called for stronger US sanctions on Myanmar.

Obama on Friday formally extended sanctions against Myanmar that were imposed in 1997, "because the actions and policies of the government of Burma continue to pose an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security and foreign policy of the United States". The sanctions bar American firms from investing in Myanmar and bans Myanmar exports to the United States.

A letter signed by nine senators was sent to Obama on March 26 urging full implementation of the Tom Lantos Block Burmese JADE Act of 2008 in response to the widely criticized election laws. The act, which targets US imports of Myanmar gemstones, also calls for the nomination of a special representative and policy coordinator for Myanmar and additional banking sanctions.

From the outset the Obama administration has said that it would consider maintaining or even increasing sanctions depending on the regime's progress towards improving the human-rights situation and progressing towards an inclusive democracy. Opponents of the Obama's engagement policy say the generals have given little indication of moving in that direction.

The generals appear unfazed by American criticism and sanctions and most analysts believe election preparations will continue in the same vein regardless of international disapproval. The US, noting that a lack of engagement also produced little benefit, is not likely to revert to its previous strictly confrontational stance. This is especially so given Myanmar's clear moves to acquire nuclear technology and North Korea's perceived hand in the process.

Brian McCartan is a Bangkok-based freelance journalist. He may be reached at brianpm@comcast.net.

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