November 4, 2008

Banks bailout fails to boost Labour ratings

Gordon Brown's rescue package for the banks has failed to boost Labour's standing with the voters, according to the latest "poll of polls" for The Independent.

Although Mr Brown enjoyed a bounce after Labour's annual conference at the end of September, the Government's widely-praised intervention to prop up the banks did not produce any further momentum.

Labour's rating rose from 26 per cent before the party conference season to 31 per cent after its gathering in Manchester in September.

But its overall level of support did not climb any higher after the banks bailout last month, said John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, who looked at the results of nine surveys.

The weighted average of the polls taken in October shows the Tories on 43 per cent (down one percentage point on September), Labour on 31 per cent (up four points), the Liberal Democrats on 16 per cent (down one point) and other parties 10 per cent (down two points). These figures would give David Cameron a majority of 62 at a general election.

"The mood of new-found optimism that seems to have enveloped the party at Westminster in recent weeks certainly seems to be out of proportion to the scale of Labour's recovery," said Professor Curtice.

"Labour has simply moved from being in dire trouble to being in deep trouble. But Labour's modest revival has certainly not done the Liberal Democrats any good; their poll rating is back down towards the bottom of its usual range."

Professor Curtice said the recovery in Labour's fortunes occurred in the immediate wake of the Labour conference and there was no evidence that the subsequent banks' bailout produced a further advance.

At best, Labour could argue that the bailout enabled the party to maintain its post-conference gains. In contrast, the mini-boost that the Tories and Liberal Democrats received after their conferences proved to be short-lived. So Labour "won" the conference season battle.

However, Labour has only bounced as high as it was in the dying days of Tony Blair's premiership – its lowest ratings during his 13 years as party leader. And the Tories are still above the 40 per cent mark and enjoy a 12-point lead despite the post-conference Labour recovery.

The Prime Minister's personal ratings have improved but are only back to where they were before the row over abolishing the 10p rate of income tax row in the spring and much worse than a year ago. Mr Cameron remains more popular.

Brown allies believe that Labour has stopped the slide and that the Prime Minister has a real opportunity to engage voters as he takes personal charge of national and international efforts to limit the impact of the downturn on people's lives.

On a visit to Abu Dhabi yesterday, Mr Brown called on the next United States president to show leadership over global financial reforms and reject a retreat into protectionism.

Speaking at an international oil conference, Mr Brown said US co-operation on co-ordinated interest rate cuts and co-operation had been "vital". But he added: "The next stage of globalisations will require even more international co-operation with American leadership crucial to its success. No country ... can solve these challenges alone."