North Korea and the inevitable
Untimely Thoughts
Peter Lavelle's blog
North Korea and the inevitable
Is it inevitable that the world will have to accept North Korea as a nuclear power? For now the international community is committed to a denuclearized Korean peninsula. The world may be forced to reconsider this proposition.
We have seen countries consider development of a nuclear weapon (or in possession of such technology), but later change their position (almost always under pressure from the international community and the West in particular). Libya did, after being made into a pariah in the West, though not in the rest of the world. South Africa came clean on its weapons program after the apartheid regime relinquished power. Ukraine actually inherited an arsenal when the Soviet Union collapsed, only to later, and wisely, relinquish them to Russia. South Korea has seriously given thought to building its own nuclear deterrent, but to this day it has accepted American security guarantees instead.
Then there is the other side of the coin – countries that did drive toward nuclear status in spite of international concern or even condemnation. It is widely believed that Israel has a large arsenal of nuclear weapons. However, because of its special status as part of Washington’s strategic thinking, Israel is allowed a special indulgence around and in defiance of international law. Pakistan and India are also in the nuclear arms club. The other members of the club, over the years, have bowed to this political reality.
Many believe Iran aspires to join the nuclear arms club. It claims otherwise and also claims it is in compliance with its international obligations on the issue. According to Tehran it is only interested in peaceful use of nuclear power. This story is ongoing and remains to be played out.
North Korea is in a category of its own. It has contempt for anything it has signed regarding weapons development. In fact, it has shown that it can use words of conciliation while planning to up the ante to get what it wants. This is where we are at. Not only is North Korea a member of the nuclear club, but it also demands to remain in the club and use membership to green-mail the entire world to secure the country’s sovereignty and extort badly needed aid.
I find it very odd that the mainstream continues to regard North Korea as a crazy or irrational state. The opposite is true. North Korea is acting in a way that is very pragmatic given its international standing and domestic conditions. It is simply wishful thinking to assume North Korea will disarm because others countries have done so in the past. Those countries had many reasons to reverse course – North Korea doesn’t.
Hopefully, long and hard negotiations are ahead and not a conflict of any kind, but it should be remembered and reflected upon how North Korea has taken extreme advantage of the poor state of the current international non-proliferation regime. This has happened because the West has been too selective on its implementation. Now we are being made to pay the price for this negligence.
Nothing is inevitable, I suppose, but I won’t be surprised that the world will eventually have to accept a nuclear North Korea and a very much nuclearized northeast Asia. The alternative is to destroy the North Korean regime. Is the world prepared to do this? I think not. The negligence and complacence of the past is catching up with us.
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