For Republicans, Court Fight Risks Losing Hispanics to Win Conservatives
WASHINGTON — President Obama’s selection of Judge Sonia Sotomayor for a seat on the Supreme Court has put the Republican Party in a bind, forcing it to weigh the cost of aggressively opposing the first Hispanic named to the court against its struggle to appeal to Hispanic voters.
Senator Mel Martinez, Republican of Florida, said members of his party must deal fairly Judge Sonia Sotomayor.
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The Republican Party has been embroiled in a public argument over whether to tend to the ideological interests of its conservative base or to expand its appeal to a wider variety of voters to regain its strength after the defeats of 2008. Many conservative activists and political strategists came out fiercely against Judge Sotomayor as soon her name was announced, denouncing her as liberal and promising Mr. Obama a tough nomination fight.
“The G.O.P. has to make a stand,” said Scott Reed, who managed Bob Dole’s 1996 presidential campaign. “This is what the base and social conservatives really care about, and we need to brand her a liberal with some out-of-the-mainstream positions. Forget about cosmetics and ethnic heritage, and focus on her record.”
But some Republicans warned that the image of the party’s throwing a roadblock before a historic nomination could prove politically devastating. Republicans saw a dip in Hispanic support in 2008, after eight years in which President George W. Bush and his political aides made a concerted effort to increase the Republican appeal to Hispanics, the nation’s fastest-growing group of voters.
“If Republicans make a big deal of opposing Sotomayor, we will be hurling ourselves off a cliff,” said Mark McKinnon, who was a senior adviser to Mr. Bush and has long advocated expanding the party’s appeal. “Death will not be assured. But major injury will be.”
And while conservative activists and some Republican leaders outside the Senate are calling for a strong effort against the nomination, the reaction from some senators — who will actually vote for the nomination — has been notably measured, suggesting that they are not necessarily looking for a fight, barring some revelation in the weeks ahead.
Senator Mel Martinez, a Florida Republican who is Hispanic, said Republicans should meticulously review Judge Sotomayor’s record, but added: “I don’t think we can begin a process by determining how to defeat someone. I’m not going to do that to this woman. I don’t think ideology should play a part here, as long as she doesn’t proclaim views that are outside the mainstream.”
“It depends on how it’s handled,” Mr. Martinez said. “I think the key to the process is that it be fair.”
Still, Senator Charles E. Grassley, Republican of Iowa and member of the Judiciary Committee, noted that Democrats had used a filibuster to block the confirmation of Miguel Estrada, a Washington lawyer nominated by Mr. Bush to be the first Hispanic on the United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia. Senate Democrats who considered Mr. Estrada too conservative blocked his nomination after he refused to answer questions about his judicial philosophy at his confirmation hearing.
Mr. Grassley said that since Democrats had not paid a price among Hispanic groups for opposing Mr. Estrada, Republicans should not be held to a different standard if they opposed Judge Sotomayor.
“I get back to this: if it makes a difference for Republicans to vote against Sotomayor because it might cause us some problems with the Hispanic community, then the Hispanic community has a double standard,” Mr. Grassley said. “How can any politician deal with double standards? You can never win. All I am asking people is to be intellectually honest.”
The conflicting pressures became clear as conservative groups came out against Judge Sotomayor even before she appeared with Mr. Obama at the White House on Tuesday morning. From the start, conservative leaders have made clear that they view the prospect of an ideologically charged nomination fight as a way to revive a movement that is lagging in spirits and money.
The countervailing pressures are no less intense. Matthew Dowd, a former adviser to Mr. Bush, said that in 2000, he calculated that Republicans needed to win 35 percent of Hispanic voters to beat Democrats. Mr. Dowd said that given the steady increase in the number of Hispanic voters, he now believed Republicans needed to win at least 40 percent.
Given that, Mr. Dowd said, Republicans could relegate themselves to long-term minority status if they were perceived as having prevented Judge Sotomayor from joining the Supreme Court, absent damaging revelations about her background or views.
“Because you’ll have a bunch of white males who lead the Judiciary Committee leading the charge, taking on an Hispanic women, and everybody from this day forward is going to know she’s totally qualified,” Mr. Dowd said. “It’s a bad visual. It’s bad symbolism for the Republicans.”
Senator Orrin G. Hatch, Republican of Utah and a member of the Judiciary Committee, acknowledged the political consequences of opposing the nomination. But, Mr. Hatch added: “That doesn’t meant that because the person is a minority and there could be political ramifications we should not do our duty. I think it’s incumbent upon us not to be worried about those considerations. Just worry about being fair.”
From the moment Mr. Bush began running for president while still governor of Texas in 2000, he pushed hard to appeal to Hispanic voters, and with considerable success. His aides argued that given Hispanics’ increasing electoral strength, attracting their support was a crucial part of trying to achieve dominance over Democrats. But the effort suffered a sharp setback when Republicans, over the objections of Mr. Bush, pressed to restrict immigration severely.
The party’s 2008 presidential nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, had long been a proponent of easing immigration restrictions, and almost lost the nomination because of it. In the end, he received 31 percent of the Hispanic vote on Election Day, according to a survey of voters leaving the polls. By contrast, four years earlier, Mr. Bush won 43 percent of the Hispanic vote.
Mr. Martinez, who said he “took great pride as an Hispanic” in the selection of Judge Sotomayor, said Republicans needed to note the increasing influence of Hispanic voters if the party wanted to regain its competitive stance.
“It’s a changing world, and we need to change,” he said.
Mr. Dowd said that the party’s first risk would be in national elections, but that it could trickle down to the states as well — particularly in places like Texas, which has a big Hispanic vote. If Hispanics begin turning toward Democrats, he said, Texas — now reliably Republican — could quickly turn into a swing state.
“If they don’t get back to a place where they are getting roughly 40 percent net of the Hispanic vote, there is no way they can ever win,” Mr. Dowd said.
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