Friday, August 06, 2010

CHARLEMOS CONMIGO MISMO




EN CUANTO AL PACIFISMO...


Desde hace veinte años, Inglaterra -su Gobierno y su opinión pública- se ha embarcado en el pacifismo. Cometemos el error de designar con este único nombre actitudes muy diferentes, tan diferentes que en la práctica resultan antagónicas. Hay, en efecto, muchas formas de pacifismo. Lo único que entre ellas existe de común es una cosa muy vaga: la creencia en que la guerra es un mal y la aspiración a eliminarla como medio de trato entre los hombres. Pero los pacifistas comienzan a discrepar en cuanto dan el paso inmediato y se preguntan hasta qué punto es en absoluto posible la desaparición de las guerras.

Es un hecho demasiado notorio que ese pacifismo inglés ha fracasado. Lo cual significa que ese pacifismo fue un error. El fracaso ha sido tan grande, tan rotundo, que alguien tendría que revisar radicalmente la cuestión y a preguntarse si no es un error todo pacifismo. Pero yo prefiero ahora adaptarme cuanto pueda al punto de vista inglés, y voy a suponer que su aspiración a la paz del mundo era una excelente aspiración. Mas ello subraya tanto más cuanto ha habido de error en el resto a saber, en la apreciación de las posibilidades de paz que el mundo actual ofrecía y en la determinación de la conducta que ha de seguir quien pretenda ser, de verdad, pacifista.

Al decir esto no sugiero nada que pueda llevar al desánimo. Todo lo contrario. ¿Por qué desanimarse? ... Baste advertir el extraño misterio de la condición humana consistente en que una situación tan negativa y de derrota como es haber cometido un error, se convierte mágicamente en una nueva victoria para el hombre, sin más que haberlo reconocido.

... Para ello es preciso que nos resolvamos a estudiarlo a fondo, a descubrir sin piedad sus raíces y construir enérgicamente la nueva concepción de las cosas que esto nos proporciona.

Como casi siempre acontece, el defecto mayor del pacifismo inglés -y, en general, de los que se presentan como titulares del pacifismo- ha sido subestimar al enemigo. Esta subestima les inspiró un diagnóstico falso. El pacifista ve en la guerra un daño, un crimen o un vicio. Pero olvida que, antes que eso y por encima de eso, la guerra es un enorme esfuerzo que hacen los hombres para resolver ciertos conflictos. La guerra no es un instinto, sino un invento. Los animales la desconocen y es pura institución humana, como la ciencia o la administración. Ella llevó a uno de los mayores descubrimientos, base de toda civilización: al descubrimiento de la disciplina. Todas las demás formas de disciplina proceden de la primigenia, que fue la disciplina militar. El pacifismo está perdido y se convierte en nula batería si no tiene presente que la guerra es una genial y formidable técnica de vida y para la vida.

Como toda forma histórica, tiene la guerra dos aspectos: el de la hora de su invención y el de la hora de su superación. En la hora de su invención significa un progreso incalculable. Hoy, cuando se aspira a superarla, vemos de ella solo la sucia espalda, su horror, su tosquedad, su insuficiencia. Del mismo modo, solemos, sin más reflexión maldecir de la esclavitud, no advirtiendo el maravilloso adelanto que representó cuando fue inventada. Porque antes lo que se hacía era matar a todos los vencidos. Fue un genio bienhechor de la humanidad el primero que ideó, en vez de matar a los prisioneros, conservarles la vida y aprovechar su labor. Augusto Comte, que tenía un gran sentido humano, es decir, histórico, vio ya de este modo la institución de la esclavitud -liberándose de las tonterías que sobre ella dice Rousseau- y a nosotros nos corresponde generalizar su advertencia, aprendiendo a mirar todas las cosas humanas bajo esa doble perspectiva, a saber: el aspecto que tienen al llegar y el aspecto que tienen al irse. Los romanos, muy finamente, encargaron a dos divinidades de consagrar esos dos instantes -Adeona y Abeona, el dios del llegar y el dios del irse.

Por desconocer todo esto, que es elemental al pacifismo se ha hecho su tarea demasiado fácil. Pensó que para eliminar la guerra bastaba con no hacerla o, a lo sumo, con trabajar en que no se hiciese. Como veía en ella sólo una excrecencia superflua y morbosa aparecida en el trato humano, creyó que bastaba con extirparla y que no era necesario sustituirla. Pero el enorme esfuerzo que es la guerra sólo puede evitarse si se entiende por paz un esfuerzo todavía mayor, un sistema de esfuerzos complicadísimos y que, en parte, requieren la venturosa intervención del genio. Lo otro es un puro error. Lo otro es interpretar la paz como el simple hueco que la guerra dejaría si desapareciese; por tanto ignorar que si la guerra es una cosa que se hace, también la paz es una cosa que hay que hacer, que hay que fabricar, poniendo a la faena todas las potencias humanas. La paz no "está ahí", sencillamente, presta sin más para que el hombre la goce. La paz no es fruto espontáneo de ningún árbol. Nada importante es regalado al hombre; antes bien, tiene él que hacérselo, que construirlo. Por eso, el título más claro de nuestra especie es ser homo faber.

ORTEGA Y GASSET, J. La rebelión de las masas. Editorial Planeta. Primera Edición. 1985. México, D.F.





A todas las fuerzas básicas del México Renegado.

La lluvia se desata justo un instante después de que hemos terminado, o para ser más preciso justo después de que yo he alcanzado mi límite.

Al final, los extremos se tocan

A dos extremos de personajes que poseen conocimiento: un ignorante y un experto han coincidido: los debates son redundantes, y etiquetemos a los que no estén de acuerdo como críticos. Porque le he preguntado a un tímido lector (se estaba rebotando la biografía novelada sobre Doroteo Arango del Taibo II), ahora sé que son las diez menos veinte, 'tonz sí me da tiempo pa´ tirar las aguas, before the mayhem really breaks out. Logísticamente no hay pero alguno, la conferencia es un éxito académico. Y todo va de acuerdo con la normalidad: nos concentramos básicamente en lo que ya está digerido del Cambio Climático y el factor humano, además hay que llamarle Calentamiento Global Antropogénico (AGW, por sus siglas en inglés) pa´no alebrestar al gallinero; no abordamos tricky issues of the topic pa´que esto se (les) vaya suave; yo hasta estoy de acuerdo en puntualizar la gravedad de problema, pero difiero un poquillo en las causas; hasta ahí todo chido. Es entonces que llega la otra superstar e intenta crucificar a todo "detractor" a la teoría que tiene "mayor consenso". ¡Pérate, compadre!, no va por allí el tiro, danos shampoo (un foro ad hoc - público de conocedores en el tema, y no uno privado preocupado solo por el nivel de audiencia*- estaría de peluches) de expresar nuestras ideas (por estos rumbos no están financiadas por ninguna pudiente transnacional pa' que no nos descalifique a priori, ni tampoco se me acerquen, plis; así estoy muuuy feliz) siquiera. Y aunque afortunadamente el rector pone el acento en un lugar distinto, me queda la espinita de saber, cuánto ha de influir esta visión sin aportación de los escépticos (eso de llamarles a todos por igual críticos me parece una desproporción, honestamente) de todos los calibres, entre el auditorio presente.



Esta mañana he de saberlo. No es la culpa de esta niña realmente, ha tenido que salir de emergente en este seminario, pero debiendo concentrarse mayormente en el flanco natural de las variaciones climáticas, atribuye el calentamiento global (y dale con el nombrecito) a puras causas antropogénicas. Al término de nuestra plática, uno de nuestros colegas olvida una de las principales hipótesis (que esa sí nuestra ponente explicó al mero principio de su exposición) de su método, "la periodicidad" de una variable climática. Imprudentemente meto otra vez mi... cuchara, para explicarle que por métodos indirectos se reconstruye la serie del Indice del Polvo Volcánico, y teniendo ese registro, se parte del supuesto de que mediante técnicas espectrales es posible extraer "sus periodicidades" más significativas, y entonces simular la serie y "aventurar" pronósticos (1). Lamentablemente, el mundo real es mucho más complicado que nuestras chaquetas mentales (sorry, si espanto a más de una damisela, como a mi cuata potosina, hi there!), y los fenómenos no se comportan tan modositos como nuestros esquemas empíricos; lo cual tampoco hace la sesgada teoría del calentamiento asignada básicamente al dióxido de carbono.

A veces solo nos es posible trabajar con los efectos y no con las causas de un fenómeno

Esta semana me tocado lidiar con obstáculos en el papel inexplicables. El cuate que me invitó al seminario es mucho más movido que yo, y ya tiene mi cheque -de los gastos del viaje- listo. Así que vamos a la sucursal del banco con el que trabaja la universidad más cercana, más después de intentarlo chorrocientas mil veces el cajero nos dice que es imposible cobrarlo, y antes que mi colega pida una reposición, se me ocurre que, con el pretexto de ir a mi cantón a merendar, podemos además probar una de las técnicas más brillantes de la ciencia: visitar la otra sucursal de por mi rumbo, nomás pa´no dejar; en efecto, el otro cajero más accesible y con las pilas bien puestas, es capaz de hacer a "las maquinitas" el comprobante aceptar. Un día después, hay que retar mi técnica una vez más, el agua corriente del depa sale solo en ciertos grifos predilectos de la red; y aunque esa noche con el casero reviso tinacos y válvulas del pisito, el desperfecto no podemos resolver. Es hasta la mañana siguiente, en que recuerdo que una de las regaderas tiene el flujo todo voltea´o (donde debería salir fría sale caliente y viceversa), trato de una por una checar las llaves de la casa, terminando con la problemática, and worked!!!! We got our water supply back. Nice!

Y sí, tal vez porque a la mayoría desean convertirnos a su evangelio de muerte, solo nos es dado observar las efectos inmediatos, y no sus causas verdaderas. Fronteras rocketeadas (http://english.aljazeera.net/news/middleeast/2010/08/20108264751402856.html), double dip recessions o una crisis que en realidad nunca se superó, poblaciones inundadas debidas principalmente al lucro personal y no a las actuales condiciones atmosféricas, desmantelamiento de todo aquello que huela a público para beneficio de un grupúsculo insaciable; names?, já, ¿netota?, algunos compas de pura guasa solían llamar -porque eso ocurrió solamente en el sexenio pasado, para nada en éste, ¿verdad?- a su palacio, "el cartel de los pinos" (http://www.highbeam.com/doc/1G1-129459204.html), y por si eso no bastarda, perdón, bastara, por ahí se filtró que se vió a uno de los entena´os más mimados departiendo festivamente con un capo de altos vuelos (http://www.jornada.unam.mx/ultimas/2010/08/06/bloquea-narco-vialidades-en-zona-conurbada-de-monterrey/) en un centro nocturno de Monterrey. Con ese tipo de hechos "irrefutables" tenemos que remar contracorriente a diario, camaradas.



Toda esa tozudez reflexiva o irracional, me arrastró a una "etapa pasajera" (http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2010/07/31/index.php?section=ciencias&article=a02n1cie) de desmotivadora depre (http://www.guardian.co.uk/lifeandstyle/2010/aug/02/depression-mental-health-breakdown). Y díganme ustedes si no me asiste la razón: a mi memoria vienen la injustas y contrastantes condiciones en que se encuentran por un lado, los antiguos y derruidos (otrora exitosos) pequeños negocios (Pepe y Toño, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gh7k0_ScsE) en el centro, y por el otro los boyantes y very flashy grandes almacenes que invaden las grandes avenidas del puerto de todas mis nostalgias; este fin de semana observé también que los (not so long ago middle-class members) rubbish diggers (http://www.bbc.co.uk/southtoday/content/articles/2009/03/12/freddies_diggers_feature.shtml) in Matamoros (JACINTO TREVIÑO... Corrido..Los Pinguinos del Norte, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3uZtMnRBAE), se hermanan con el exelectricista desempleado que ahora se dedica a recoger latas de aluminio en el Koreantown de la zona rosa en la capital (Rockdrigo Gonzalez vieja ciudad de hierro, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uhemeST6i_Y) de nuestra República Mexicana. Honestamente, por un momento consideré (again, compa?) tirar la toalla ya, hasta que, por motivos no planeados, tuve que tomar mi lunch en el espacio abierto que lleva a los salones de clases de la licenciatura en matemáticas de la facultad de ciencias; y me encontré entonces con esa preciosa anarquía (o lo que sea) "funcional", que alberga a una medio desordenada "barra de ensaladas" y cafetería que es "administrada" por un grupo de voluntarios estudiantes. Pido que al café "me lo planchen" a la francesa (French Kiss - Movie Trailer, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TF9xsk3tmoA), *mientras veo pasar hermosas jovencitas a las que desafortunadamente los media (Rockdrigo Gonzalez - Television, http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SP6AlLvGRU) no les darán el mismo reconocimiento que a la Lady Gaga (http://www.redinmigrante.es/index.php/politicasecc/54-imagendeldia/563-lady-gaga-critica-la-ley-sb1070-en-su-concierto-en-arizona-igaga-oh-la-la.html), estudiantes vestidos (tal vez porque, ya sea regalado o prestado, no pueden acceder a la ropa de marca como yo) a la usanza -esta vez creo que es sincera- de mi cuate chilango en Norwich, and also manage to overhear a conversation between two lads, uno de ellos ha sacado mucho jugo a sus vacaciones -nada escucho de "emocionantes" summer camps-, viajando a realizar "trabajo comunitario" en Michoacán, y un lugar bien jodido de Guerrero que ubica en Xochistlahuaca. Ese luch break renueva mis energías y me convence que, así sea imperfecto, si "nos aplicamos" a la manera desprendida de estos escolapios, entonces seguro que mucho de lo que aspiramos hemos de lograr. AL TIEMPO.



M@RCobijado por la academia;

Ciudad Universitaria, México, D.F.;

06/08/10;

... y tal vez "el amor verdadero" sea una chiquilla arrebatada.



PREGUNTAS SIN RESPUESTA:




¿Apoco no les avisé con un chingo de tiempo desde la semana santa de 2007? ¿Ahora (lo que) va (es) "destapar" (http://marcosalas.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!BDFACA893D7CA374!1084.entry) ligas entre el narco y las adormecidas guerrillas (http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2010/08/06/index.php?section=sociedad&article=035n1soc, Las normales rurales, semillero de guerrilleros, afirma Gordillo) en el país?





ENCORE ENIGMÁTICO:

Watch this video on VideoSurf or see more Charlie Brown Videos





















http://marcosalas.blogspot.com/2010/08/charlemos-conmigo-mismo-encore.html
http://creatividadsocialmentecomprometida.blogspot.com/2010/08/charlemos-conmigo-mismo-encore.html

Thursday, August 05, 2010


Está detrás de Islas Vírgenes, Argentina, Chile, Venezuela y Uruguay, señala

En cobertura universitaria, México va debajo del promedio de AL: Narro

República de Corea tiene 95 por ciento de su población juvenil con estudios superiores, ejemplifica

Periódico La Jornada
Jueves 5 de agosto de 2010, p. 5

El rector de la Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), José Narro Robles, advirtió ayer que es probable que al terminar 2010, México tenga una cobertura educativa universitaria cercana a 30 por ciento, es decir, cuatro puntos por debajo del promedio en América Latina y el Caribe, y alrededor de 20 puntos por debajo de Islas Vírgenes, Argentina, Chile, Uruguay o Venezuela.

Al participar en la instalación del Consejo de Educación del Distrito Federal Por la equidad y la calidad de la educación en la ciudad de México, realizada en el Centro Cultural Estación Indianilla y encabezado por el jefe de Gobierno capitalino, Marcelo Ebrard Casaubon, el rector explicó que lo ideal es que un individuo, desde su niñez hasta la adolescencia, tenga ciento por ciento de oportunidades y posibilidades de acceder al sistema educativo.

En ese contexto, Narro Robles aseveró que sin educación no hay futuro. Sin educación, una persona o una colectividad no tienen porvenir.

Sin educación no hay porvenir

Con base en el último reporte de la Unesco sobre tasas de cobertura, Narro detalló que la República de Corea tiene a 95 por ciento de su población juvenil con estudios universitarios, seguida de Finlandia con 94; Grecia, que con todos sus problemas económicos tiene 91; Estados Unidos con 82, y Dinamarca y Nueva Zelanda con 80.

Ustedes pueden decir que esos países tienen condiciones diferentes a las de México, reflexionó el rector, antes de referirse a la cobertura educativa de Islas Vírgenes, con 75 por ciento; Argentina, 67; Uruguay, 64, y Chile y Venezuela con 52. Incluso, Panamá, Colombia, Perú, Brasil; muchos otros países que están por delante de nosotros. Entonces, hay una gran tarea por realizar.

En el caso de México, Narro Robles desglosó que el Distrito Federal tiene más de 55 por ciento de cobertura en educación superior, la más grande del país, cerca de 20 puntos arriba de Nuevo León y tres veces y media más que las entidades que tienen el mayor rezago, como pueden ser Chiapas y Quintana Roo.

La ciudad de México tiene las mejores instituciones respecto del resto de las entidades federativas. Hay que decirlo con mucho orgullo y al mismo tiempo con preocupación, por lo que pasa en otras regiones del país, señaló el rector de la UNAM.

Del mismo modo se refirió al número de integrantes del Sistema Nacional de Investigadores (SNI) o de programas de posgrado de calidad que tiene la ciudad de México, así como a la enorme oferta institucional pública y privada para realizar estudios desde prescolar hasta profesionales.

Esta es una entidad federativa que tiene una notoria y notable diferencia (educativa) con el resto de los estados y muy por encima, en general, del promedio de nuestro país, insistió.

Finalmente, Narro Robles advirtió que todavía hay muchas cosas que realizar, como mejorar los problemas con la interconexión entre los diferentes niveles de educación, con la formación de profesores, planes de estudio y la necesidad de utilizar de manera pertinente las tecnologías disponibles.







Risk to Global Economy

China's Real Estate Bubble Threatens to Burst

By Wieland Wagner

Two years after the US subprime crisis, China is seeing its own real estate bubble as a result of massive state stimulus programs. Many economists are warning it could burst soon, with unpredictable results for the global economy.

An interminable sawing, screeching, drilling and hammering rips through the oppressive summer heat and humidity in the northern Chinese city of Tianjin. Here, on the city's dusty outskirts, hundreds of new apartment buildings and houses in every imaginable style are springing up.

In an air-conditioned showroom, salespeople in yellow uniforms take potential buyers on tours of the facility. "In one year, we already sold 90 percent of North America, Asia and Europe," customer consultant Qi Yunbu says proudly. "Now we're preparing Africa, Oceania and South America for sale."

"Xingyao Wuzhou," loosely translated as "Shining Star over Five Continents," is the name of this Chinese blend of Dubai and Disneyland, a €2.3 billion ($3 billion) development designed to imitate the world map. The gigantic residential and leisure complex is being built around and within an artificial lake.

The developers apparently want to make sure that the residents of this aquatic paradise will lack for nothing. The plans include the world's largest indoor ski center, golf courses, a seven-star hotel, the world's largest musical fountain and miniature replicas of famous structures like the Tower Bridge in London and San Francisco's Golden Gate Bridge.

'The World Is Yours'

Megalomania is in full swing in China's booming economy. "The World Is Yours" is the slogan the developers are using to advertise the luxury project. Qi points to model villas in an exclusive waterfront location. These properties won't be sold until the end, he says, winking conspiratorially. Since sales began, square-meter prices have already risen by 4,000 to 5,000 yuan (€450-€570 or $590-$740). The investors expect their handsome profits to increase with each new construction phase.

Calculated optimism forms the fragile base on which similar projects are thriving all across China. Doubts are taboo, especially now that the mood is beginning to shift, at least outside the flashy showrooms. There is more and more talk of the bubble bursting soon, with some saying that the tipping point has already been reached -- with uncertain consequences for the rest of the global economy.

In June, real estate prices in 70 large Chinese cities declined over the previous month for the first time in almost one-and-a-half years -- by 0.4 percent for new construction and 0.1 percent for existing structures. The government statistics office also reported sobering figures for the overall economy.

Statistics also show that the economy grew by only 10.3 percent in the second quarter, compared with the same period last year. Growth in the first three months of the year was still at 11.9 percent. This decline in growth seems ridiculous when compared with economic conditions in Western industrialized countries. But for the People's Republic, whose development model needs record growth to keep the economy from quickly sliding downward, the recent data is unsettling.

'It's a Bubble'

Western exporting countries like Germany, which partly owe their gradual recovery from the global crisis to orders from China, are also reminded of the risks in East Asia. "You're starting to see that collapse in property and it's going to hit the banking system," Kenneth Rogoff, a Harvard professor and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, warned recently. "It's a bubble."

Even Xu Shaoshi, China's minister of land and resources, fears that the real estate market could undergo a "total correction" in the third quarter -- although, he adds, it will not look like the crisis the United States has experienced in recent years. There, the crisis began when banks started issuing more and more so-called subprime mortgages. People who could not in fact afford to buy a house were lured with low-interest loans and the promise that their property would more than likely increase in value and essentially pay for itself.

When real estate values first started going down, hundreds of thousands of people could no longer afford their mortgage payments. The real estate crisis turned into a banking crisis, and then into a debt crisis for the entire Western world. The consequences are still in evidence today, from the millions of unemployed and homeless people in the United States, to euro-zone nations like Greece, which threaten to collapse under the pressure of massive government debt.

China, which long seemed immune to the global crunch, now faces the threat of a homemade real estate crisis. This could spell trouble for many local governments, which in some cases have financed almost a third of their major infrastructure projects, like airports and train stations, by selling agricultural land to real estate sharks.

The Limits of Growth

Chinese municipalities sold 319,000 hectares (788,000 acres) of land in 2009 alone, an increase of 44 percent over the previous year. Local governments have borrowed heavily from banks, in the anticipation that land prices would continue to rise.

But now even China is running up against the limits of its growth, jeopardizing a central pillar of the Chinese economy. During the course of its economic stimulus programs, the government pumped 4 trillion yuan (about €450 billion or $590 billion) into the largest bailout package the People's Republic has ever seen. Initially, this triggered a massive building boom, sometimes with drastic consequences, including the frequent use of brutal methods to expropriate citizens.

Since last summer, Chinese banks have seen their inventories of real estate loans grow by more than 40 percent. This has led to bad planning, shady payments and, in many cases, exploding prices that directly affect the general population.

Saving money is hardly worthwhile in China. After a number of turbulent episodes in the markets, some of them dramatic, citizens are now shying away from investments in stocks. Under these circumstances, the Chinese long viewed buying a condominium or a house as the most sensible and profitable investment.

In some cities, the number of new residential units has already exceeded the number of new households. In major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, the Chinese pay about 20 times their annual salary to buy a condominium. By comparison, this factor is only about eight in expensive major world cities like Tokyo.

Part 2: Bubble Drives Up Commodity Prices

The imminent bubble is already affecting the rest of the world. The strong demand in China's voracious construction industry has also led to sharp rises in the prices of commodities like aluminum, iron and copper. Not surprisingly, a recent survey showed that more than two-thirds of all Chinese hope that the real estate bubble will burst soon. Many sense that China's brand of government-controlled capitalism is still a long way from being a market economy capable of self-regulation.

The political leadership reacted in April when it sought to curb speculative fever by instructing banks to approve fewer mortgage loans. At the same time, the required minimum down payment for the purchase of second homes was increased to 50 percent. The government is also thinking of taxing home ownership in the future.

But these measures are risky. In addition to curbing speculation, they could also stall the rest of the economy. The real estate sector is responsible for 20 percent of fixed investments, which could lead to an unwanted effect: If China starts building fewer apartment buildings and houses, sectors like the steel, glass and cement industries could end up with substantial excess capacity.

Crash or Soft Landing?

Notorious pessimists aren't the only ones painting these scenarios. Even Prime Minister Wen Jiabao recently admitted: "China, with its macroeconomic measures, faces an unexpectedly large dilemma." The fundamental risks are already reflected on the Shanghai Stock Exchange, where real estate and bank assets account for a quarter of market capitalization. The stock index fell by 27 percent in the first half of this year.

But is a real estate crash truly inevitable, or will China's economic planners manage to bring about a soft landing? Cao Jianhai of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing likens the Chinese economy to "a volcano before an eruption." Nevertheless, he doesn't believe that the government of Hu Jintao, the Communist Party leader and president, and Prime Minister Wen will allow a crash to occur before its term in office ends in 2012 -- local governments are too dependent on the real estate boom. According to Cao, Beijing will go to "any expense" to pump money into the financial system and spur a renewed surge of rapid economic growth.

But the bubble could burst in two years, says Cao, and then it will be up to Hu's and Wen's successors to correct the situation. In the worst case, Cao predicts, there could be a large-scale run on the banks. "Of the 4 trillion yuan in the Chinese economic stimulus package, 3 trillion are in fact coming from local governments -- and they borrowed the money from the banks."

Another Lost Decade?

There is an interesting historical parallel to the new Chinese bubble. With its excesses, such as luxury villas, amusement parks and golf courses, China's real estate bubble bears a striking similarity to the Japanese bubble of the 1980s. At the time, the property occupied by the emperor's palace in Tokyo was supposedly worth as much -- on paper -- as the entire state of California.

Admittedly, there are many differences between the aging island nation of Japan and the giant market that is China. In the People's Republic, more than 10 million people migrate from rural areas to major cities each year, an influx that does in fact create additional demand for apartments. But the current boom does not address this real demand, says Cao. "Migrant workers are poor and cannot afford the apartments, which are usually much too expensive."

After its bubble burst, Japan suffered the so-called "lost decade," which was followed by a second decade of crisis. Cao is convinced that China, too, will pay a heavy price for its dependence on the real estate boom: "Our industrial development will be delayed by 10 years as a result."

Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan




Los actuales y futuros pensionados no se verán afectados, expresa el funcionario

El IMSS no aplicará la jurisprudencia de la Corte sobre pensiones, asegura Karam

Llegado el momento, las jubilaciones se calcularán con base en el límite de 25 salarios mínimos

Foto
Protestas en las cercanías del Senado de la República, durante la comparecencia de los titulares del Seguro Social, Daniel Karam, y del Trabajo y Previsión Social, Javier Lozano
Foto Jesús Villaseca


Periódico La Jornada
Jueves 5 de agosto de 2010, p. 7

Ningún trabajador que haya cotizado con base en la ley del Seguro Social de 1973, y lo siga haciendo con la vigente a partir de julio de 1997, se verá afectado en la consideración del monto de su jubilación a causa de la jurisprudencia dictada por la Suprema Corte de Justicia de la Nación (SCJN), aseguró Daniel Karam, director del Instituto Mexicano del Seguro Social (IMSS).

Sus derechos y beneficios están a salvo, dijo. Llegado el momento, el monto jubilatorio se calculará con base en el límite general de 25 salarios mínimos, apuntó al informar sobre la determinación asumida ayer por el consejo técnico del instituto sobre este tema.

Los pensionados actuales y los pensionados futuros no tienen por qué preocuparse, pues el Seguro Social seguirá calculando el monto tal como lo ha venido haciendo en los últimos años. No tendrán ninguna reducción a la luz de la jurisprudencia 85/2010, aseguró.

Al término de la reunión del consejo técnico, efectuada ayer por la mañana, Karam leyó el mensaje para el que no aceptó pregunta alguna. Y así, sin mayor explicación, se limitó a repetir cuatro veces que los derechos de los trabajadores se mantienen intactos.

Insistió en señalar que los más de 2 millones 500 mil personas que ya disfrutan de una jubilación pueden tener la tranquilidad y la certeza de que en los meses y años subsecuentes seguirán recibiendo su ingreso mensual sin afectación alguna en su cuantía.

En entrevista por separado, José Luis Carazo, representante del sector obrero ante el consejo técnico, comentó que el director jurídico del IMSS, Fernando Gutiérrez, hizo la exposición del análisis realizado por su área sobre la jurisprudencia de la segunda sala de la SCJN.

Aunque es un asunto complejo en extremo, quedó claro, según el dirigente, que no existe afectación a las pensiones porque la sentencia que limita a 10 salarios mínimos el tope para el monto de las jubilaciones por invalidez, vejez y cesantía en edad avanzada hace referencia al artículo 33 de la Ley del Seguro Social de 1973, la cual quedó derogada a partir del primero de julio de 1997.

En su lugar entraron en vigor el artículo 28 y el 25 transitorio del nuevo ordenamiento, en los cuales se determina el mecanismo para el cálculo y pago de jubilaciones. De acuerdo con José Luis Carazo, aunque los trabajadores opten por el sistema para el retiro que estuvo vigente hasta julio de 1997, son beneficiarios de los preceptos mencionados.

Interrogado sobre la posibilidad de que en las ventanillas del IMSS donde se tramitan las jubilaciones se aplique la jurispudencia del máximo tribunal, aseguró que el consejo técnico estará atento a que eso no ocurra y a que cualquier denuncia de los trabajadores sea atendida de manera inmediata.

La sesión del consejo duró apenas una hora. Fue rápida porque el asunto estaba resuelto y casi no hubo participaciones, sobre todo porque los representantes de los sectores obrero y patronal ya habían fijado su postura, comentó Carazo.

Lo que nos interesaba era que no se modificaran las condiciones para el cálculo de las jubilaciones y eso fue lo que nos informaron, agregó.

Al término del encuentro los consejeros acompañaron al director Karam a la lectura del mensaje ante los medios de comunicación. Por el sector gubernamental estuvo el secretario del Trabajo y Previsión Social, Javier Lozano Alarcón; por el sector obrero, José Luis Carazo, integrante de la Confederación de Trabajadores de México; Mario Martínez Dector, de la Confederación Revolucionaria de Obreros y Campesinos, así como Rodolfo González, de la Confederación Regional Obrera Mexicana.

Por el sector patronal estuvieron Salomón Presburger, presidente de la Confederación de Cámaras Industriales (Concamin); Jorge Dávila, presidente de la Confederación de Cámaras Nacionales de Comercio (Concanaco). También asistió Juan Moisés Calleja, secretario general del consejo técnico.

Israel-Lebanon Conflict

Lots of Questions, Few Answers in Border Skirmish

By Ulrike Putz in southern Lebanon

Did Israeli soldiers really just want to move a tree? Who shot first and what role did a Shiite commander play? One day after an exchange of fire between Israeli and Lebanese soldiers, many crucial questions are still being addressed. And while it appears that a new war between the countries has been averted, Wednesday's quiet is deceptive.

On Tuesday evening at 8:30 p.m. local time, people all over Lebanon were glued to their television sets. They wanted to know if the next war had already started.

Earlier on Tuesday, a skirmish between Israeli and Lebanese troops had broken out on the border between the two countries, leaving four people dead. Although the situation eventually calmed down -- at least for now -- for a few hours it looked like the two countries were on the brink of war.

In the fishing port of Tyre in the south of Lebanon, the harbor bars were unable to hold all the crowds who wanted to know whether war had broken out. They stood out on the street, listening to a televised broadcast by Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese Shiite militia Hezbollah. How would he react to the fighting on the Israeli border?

Nasrallah spoke for almost two hours. He condemned the "Israeli aggression" and threatened that, when the next border incident happened, his militia would fight together with the Lebanese army against the enemy. His choice of words was belligerent: "The Israeli hand that targets the Lebanese Army will be cut off." But Nasrallah did not go beyond such soundbites in his speech.

Tense Relations

His restraint came as a surprise -- a pleasant one for many observers. After his address, which was transmitted by video link, the sky over Tyre began to glow. Hezbollah supporters celebrated their leader's address with fireworks, while others were just happy that, after the 2006 war between Israel and Hezbollah, another armed conflict had been averted for the time being. Nasrallah had not declared a campaign against Israel, as many had feared.

In July 2006, the abduction of two Israeli soldiers by Hezbollah, which acts as a kind of state-within-a-state in Lebanon, triggered a month-long war which left 1,200 Lebanese and 160 Israeli soldiers dead.

Relations between Israel and Lebanon have been extremely tense for months. Now a battle has begun over interpretations of Tuesday's incident, which could have escalated into war. The only thing that is certain is that Israeli soldiers exchanged fire with the Lebanese army after Israeli troops had tried to cut down a cypress tree growing in the border area. But many questions remain unanswered:

  • Where exactly was the tree? Lebanon accuses Israel of having penetrated into Lebanese territory. But the Israelis say that the tree stood on their land. A United Nations spokesperson has confirmed the latter version.
  • Who opened fire first? Sources close to the UN troops stationed in southern Lebanon told SPIEGEL ONLINE that the Israeli version of events was correct, namely that Lebanese soldiers had fired first. Israel only responded to that attack, they said, albeit with guns, tanks, artillery and helicopter gunships. The Lebanese army has since admitted that its soldiers began the skirmish. In a statement issued to the news agency AFP, a spokesman said: "The Lebanese army opened fire first at Israeli soldiers who entered Lebanese territory ... This constituted defense of our sovereignty and is an absolute right." Two Lebanese soldiers, a Lebanese journalist and one Israeli officer were killed in the clash.
  • Why were shots fired? On Wednesday, Israeli media put the blame on an overzealous Lebanese officer. Israel Radio reported that the Lebanese commander had exploited a delay in maintenance work to put snipers into position in the area. After a verbal confrontation, the snipers opened fire on Israeli soldiers, Israel Radio said. The Lebanese side has so far not commented on the allegations.
  • What is behind the incident? Here, too, there is only speculation. One Israeli radio station commented that it was curious that many Lebanese journalists had been invited to the border area in advance. Hezbollah was apparently not involved in the incident. The Lebanese commander accused of sparking the incident, however, is a Shiite with extreme views and a supporter of Hezbollah, military commentator Alex Fishman claimed in the Israeli daily newspaper Yedioth Ahronoth. The officer had probably acted on his own, Fishman wrote: "Such a commander in such an explosive region as southern Lebanon could be the catalyst of a war that nobody wants." Fishman also raised the question of whether the soldier was acting on secret orders from Hezbollah.

'The Perfect Excuse'

According to media reports, the Israeli leadership on Tuesday considered implementing a previously drafted plan of attack, which would have involved bombing Lebanese army positions in southern Lebanon. Only international pressure and protests by the Lebanese government apparently kept the Israelis from responding to the border incident with force.

One expert in Lebanon, however, believes that neither country has any interest in a conflict. "If one side had wanted a war, then this skirmish would have been the perfect excuse to start one," said the observer, who did not want to be named.

Israel is apparently relying on the assumption that Lebanon does not want war. On Wednesday, the Israeli army continued its maintenance work at the border. Soldiers were cutting down trees along the border under the protection of several tanks. There was also a substantial military presence on the Lebanese side. So far, however, no further incidents have been reported.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,710158,00.html



The Taliban's New Target

Losing Faith in Pakistan's Future

By Gerhard Spörl in Lahore, Pakistan

Long a home to Pakistan's intellectual elite, the tolerant city of Lahore has become a favorite target of the Taliban. The development is causing the country's leading writer, Ahmed Rashid, whose books are required reading in the West's military academies, to lose his optimism that the Islamist militants can be defeated.

The small photo hanging on the wall in his office depicts a serious-looking man with a long, black beard, dressed entirely in white. The man is one of those Afghan warlords who have made life hell for would-be conquerors from the East and West for centuries. Ahmed Rashid, standing next to him, stares at the camera with the same blank expression on his face.

The man in white is Jalaluddin Haqqani, the leader of a clan in eastern Afghanistan. The picture was taken 22 years ago. At the time, Haqqani was still poking fun at the Taliban, who he saw as uneducated hicks, born in Pakistani refugee camps, indoctrinated in Islamic religious schools and led by zealots from Palestine, Saudi Arabia and Egypt. At that time, the Taliban still had to learn how to wage war, and it made many mistakes. Its leaders were constantly losing an eye, an arm or a leg.

The Taliban fighters were uneducated and unaware. The history of their Pashtun people was unknown to them, they were unfamiliar with the history of their country, and they had never lived in a real city. Haqqani, on the other hand, was a warlord for his clan and was well-traveled. He once met with former US President Ronald Reagan in Washington. Haqqani, now 60, was a real Afghan. That was the way he saw himself, and it was how Afghanistan saw him.

Rashid chuckles quietly as he rocks back and forth in his desk chair, his hands behind his head. He is a friendly, 62-year-old man with the booming voice of a storyteller. A man without pretentions, the Pakistani intellectual has become the chronicler of this part of the world.

Both men were wrong at the time. The warlord firmly believed that important Afghan warriors had to be like him. His mistake was that he didn't take the Taliban seriously. And Rashid underestimated the immense power that lies in the simple faith of the Taliban. Its members have no problem with death, and they turn it into a political weapon. They have since learned how to wage war, and waging war has become their life. They are also not the puppets of terrorist leader Osama bin Laden, but rather a deadly threat in their own right.

Experiencing History at First Hand

Rashid has made many trips to Afghanistan in the last 30 years. He has acquired an encyclopedic knowledge of this part of the world, and he is a singular figure, because he not only describes history but has also experienced it himself.

Rashid happened to be in Kabul in 1979 when Soviet tanks invaded the country. He was in Kandahar in 1994 when the Taliban captured the city, creating a bloodbath in the process. He became a firsthand witness to a tragedy in this strange, remote part of the world, and he had already written his books by the time it occurred to the rest of the world to turn its attention to Afghanistan, Pakistan and Central Asia.

The West first learned about the origins of the jihadists and their mentors from Rashid's books. And Rashid was the first to write about the things the West now knows about Afghanistan's warlords -- the Haqqanis in the east, the Dostums in the north and the Khans in the west --, and about their conflicting alliances with the Pakistani, Turkish and Iranian intelligence agencies. "Taliban," his most famous book, is still required reading for officers in British and American military academies.

Rashid wrote it in 1999, two years before the 9/11 attacks. He described who the Taliban were, how they interpreted Islam, who their influences were and what role bin Laden and his Arabs played. It made the Pakistani intellectual into a world-renowned figure. Suddenly he had acquired a monopoly on explaining and interpreting a new phenomenon in world politics. A million and a half copies of "Taliban" were sold in the Anglo-American world alone, and it was translated into 26 languages.

Read in the White House

Rashid has been a sensation since then. After the attacks on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon, the White House ordered 28 copies of his book. Then-Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld met with him to discuss his opinions, and Rashid was showered with invitations from the likes of neocon luminary Paul Wolfowitz and British Prime Minister Tony Blair. President Barack Obama invited him to dinner before his inauguration, at a time when Obama himself was apparently not very well informed about the situation in Afghanistan.

Hardly any other intellectual enjoys a comparable level of authority. Given his fame, Rashid could almost be forgiven for being conceited.

In Germany, the writer Hans Magnus Enzensberger was similarly influential, but unlike Rashid, Enzensberger wasn't interested in being an adviser to political leaders. In France, Bernard-Henri Lévy has taken on the role of the public intellectual, a role in which he has both rendered great service and demonstrated his need for admiration. The British prefer serious scholars like Ian Buruma and Timothy Garton Ash.

Tolerance Under Attack

But Rashid doesn't live in Munich, Paris or London. Instead, he lives in Lahore, Pakistan, a country plagued by constant unrest and danger. The Taliban, a group he has written about extensively, has expanded its efforts beyond what it sees as the national liberation struggle in Afghanistan. It is now in Pakistan, and it is in Lahore, a place filled with many of the things that it hates and wants to destroy.

Lahore is still a beautiful city, a Pakistani jewel, with its Badshahi Mosque, its Shalimar Gardens and its landmark fortress behind imposing walls. The British left behind a large number of schools and universities. It is a city where mopeds overloaded with people dominate street traffic. But it also has its fair share of old-fashioned donkey carts.

On the surface, Lahore, a city of 10 million, is still a refreshing exception among Asia's big cities, cleaner and less overheated than New Delhi, Karachi or Bangkok. It also seems more open-minded. The city's most popular talk show host is a transvestite. At the same time, Lahore is a place where open-mindedness has now come under attack.

Part 2: How Lahore Is Changing Its Ways

The view of the large bank buildings in the city's downtown is oddly obstructed by large billboards. Behind them, heavy sandbags have been placed as a protection against firebombs.

Female students, their heads tightly wrapped in headscarves, are streaming from the King Edward Medical University, a magnificent white structure from the colonial era. Organized Islamists recently attacked a group of girls who were not wearing headscarves, together with the young men who were accompanying them. When a foreign organization wants to host an event -- like when Germany's Heinrich Böll Foundation wanted to hold a farewell party for its director -- it has to apply for a permit. The permit comes with conditions: no speeches with political overtones, no criticism of the government, and women are not permitted to dance.

Lahore is treading warily and changing its ways. The city government is desperate to provide the Taliban with as few potential targets as possible. The city has been in shock since it was rocked by a recent series of bombings and suicide attacks. European and Asian corporations are leaving the city, a move that could be disastrous for Pakistan, which has only managed to struggle through an ongoing economic crisis thanks to international investment and billions in aid from the United States.

More than 90 people died in a double bombing of two mosques in late May. Everything changed after the attack, which marked a turning point for Lahore. It served as final proof that a Pakistani Taliban does indeed exist. It cooperates with the Afghan Taliban and with bin Laden's al-Qaida, and it is now waging a war on two fronts, in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. For the Taliban, Pakistan has more to offer than Afghanistan: an entire arsenal of nuclear weapons.

Out of Place

Rashid lives in an upper middle-class neighborhood where many security precautions have been taken. Drivers are forced to slowly negotiate their way around a series of barriers installed on the wide arterial roadway that passes through the neighborhood, while soldiers wielding submachine guns calmly examine the drivers and vehicles. The neighborhood, which is called Cantt, is a residential area for members of the military and the intelligence services. They live in large houses behind high walls, along streets patrolled by security guards and police cars.

Rashid seems out of place in this environment. In his books, he describes how the army and the Pakistani intelligence service nurtured and protected the Taliban and other terrorist groups from the very beginning, in the belief that they could manipulate them. But the strategy never works in the long run, because the groups eventually start playing their own game. Ironically, Rashid and his family now live in relative safety in a neighborhood of which Rashid has a relatively low opinion -- just as it has a low opinion of him.

His office is in an addition to his house, a large room with bookcases lining the walls. Hamid Karzai once sat on his sofa, before he became Afghanistan's president, and discussed whether he should return to Afghanistan, and what he could expect to find there. The sound is turned off on the TV set in the corner, just as US General David Petraeus, who Washington has now sent to Afghanistan to set things straight, is talking about how he set things straight in Iraq. Rashid turns up the volume as Petraeus explains that he has a difficult job ahead of him, and that it's a tough situation, but that he's there to win the war. He says it in a stoic and determined voice. America is coming to its senses, says Rashid, but it's too late, much too late. Iraq was more important to the Americans.

Double Perspective

Rashid sees the world from two perspectives, as both a Pakistani and a Briton. He was born in Pakistan, and now he has made Pakistan his home. But he spent his formative years in England, from elementary school to university (he studied at Cambridge). His father was an engineer, a product of British colonialism, which had a knack for fostering local talent. After the establishment of Pakistan, the family moved to London.

Rashid thinks in Western terms, and he knows how the West thinks. He makes the strategists in the West uneasy, because he draws their attention to how things work in this part of Asia. And he doesn't make it easy for them, because it isn't easy.

In "Descent Into Chaos," his best book to date, Rashid describes the decline Pakistan and Afghanistan have experienced since Sept. 11, 2001. The work represents the sum of his experiences, and it is much more pessimistic in tone than his earlier books.

Always a Step Ahead

The conditions in this part of the world are maddeningly complex. Every country is seeking to exert influence on every other country. All the countries in the region share borders with each other. Anyone who considers Afghanistan must also consider Pakistan, because the Pakistani military and intelligence service are determined to exert their influence in Kabul when the Americans withdraw.

Anyone who considers Pakistan certainly has to take India into account, because of the mutual paranoia that the two countries share. Anyone who considers neighboring Iran cannot forget the country's conflict with the United States over its nuclear program. Iran, for its part, suspects that the United States could use its bases in Afghanistan for conventional attacks after a nuclear strike. And if the United States decides to remain in Afghanistan for longer than anticipated, neither China nor Russia will be amused.

The secret US military documents about the mission in Afghanistan uncovered by WikiLeaks, excerpts of which were published last week by SPIEGEL, The Guardian and the New York Times, merely confirm what Rashid has already written: that the Pakistani intelligence service supports the Taliban. Rashid, always a step ahead, says that, just a few months ago, Karzai would still have been pleased about that kind of leak. But, he adds, because Karzai senses that the Americans will not defeat the Taliban, and that talks with the Taliban will also be unsuccessful, he is now seeking to improve ties with Pakistan and Iran. And perhaps, says Rashid, Karzai even hopes to strike a ceasefire and power-sharing deal in Afghanistan without the Americans.

Part 3: Despairing of the West

Rashid has been invited to a lunch with Asma Jahangir, an impressive woman who is very well known in Pakistan. She is a lawyer and advocate of the Supreme Court of Pakistan. Attorneys like Jahangir and the Supreme Court justices form Pakistan's civil society, because the country's civilian politicians are weak, corrupt or both. The members of the liberal intelligentsia are a thorn in the side of the religious fanatics, and as a result must constantly fear for their lives.

The guests assemble in a room with paneled walls reminiscent of a British club. Most are women in saris, all very self-confident and cosmopolitan. They exchange pleasantries and discuss their opinions about Obama, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and General Petraeus, as if they were guests on a morning talk show on US television. They have all spent years in London, New York and elsewhere in the West. They are pinning their hopes on the West, and yet they are also despairing of the West.

They are part of the Rashid generation, born shortly before or after Pakistan's independence. They are privileged, they have lived in the West, and they can leave the country at any time if things become too dangerous. But they are deprived of the one thing that members of the intelligentsia in other countries that call themselves democracies have come to expect: the opportunity to share in political power.

Controlled by the Army

Pakistan is in fact an army that controls a country. The country itself was born in 1947, out of blood and violence, when a large share of the Muslims living in what was to become India emigrated to the future Pakistan, while the Hindus in Pakistan went to India, with both sides committing horrible massacres against one another. For the past 63 years, Pakistan has been governed by an alternating succession of unstable military leaders and unstable civilian governments.

Both civilian governments and the military determine what the national interest should be. Pakistan's military leaders are against reforms. Instead, they want to add even more nuclear weapons to their arsenal, in their determination to be prepared for the worst-case scenario, a nuclear clash with India.

After 9/11, the Rashid generation was more hopeful than ever that Pakistan would either come to its senses or be forced to do so by the Americans. And the United States is very active, pumping untold billions into the country. But when push comes to shove, American presidents are more apt to strengthen the Pakistani military, which they see as the last stronghold of rationality.

Wild Past

The day is coming to an end. Spain is about to defeat Germany in the World Cup semifinal. Rashid is married to a Spanish woman, and the house is starting to fill up with guests. Rashid is in good spirits after having finished a successful interview with a daily newspaper. He still has one wild story up his sleeve. This time it's about him, about his early years as a chronicler of his part of the world. There was a period in Rashid's life that preceded his transformation into a public intellectual, a revolutionary phase that was no game.

It was 1968, and Rashid was a student at Cambridge. The student revolts of the late 1960s were in their infancy, and Rashid was the Pakistani version of his generation. They read Mao, Trotsky and Lenin, and Ché Guevara was their hero. They were caught up in the great flow of emotions of the time, which derived its energy from an abhorrence for the Vietnam War.

Rashid was one of four Pakistanis who called themselves the "London Group," a name that sounded important to them. They wanted to do more than read and attend protests. They wanted to change their country, change it in revolutionary ways. They began by flying to Beirut to attend a training camp, where they completed a basic course in guerilla tactics and learned how to use weapons.

Taking to the Mountains

When they returned to Pakistan, the country was in the midst of one of the more difficult of its many difficult existential crises. After its 1971 war for independence, East Pakistan had seceded and renamed itself Bangladesh. The entire country, already an artificial construct, seemed to be on the verge of disintegration. The establishment was weaker than it had been in a long time. As Rashid and his compatriots saw it, they had been presented with an enormous opportunity to change the country.

But where would their revolution begin? Ché, their idol had fought his way out of the mountains and into the cities. Pakistan was their Cuba. And their mountains were in Balochistan, a poor province where the mountain tribes, as tested by war as their Afghan counterparts, had been fighting for independence, or at least autonomy, for years.

The four men established contact with the tribal leaders in the mountains. They immersed themselves in a world that was as foreign to them as the moon. They called themselves commanders, suggested ways to improve the farmers' harvests and addressed problems of medical care. They published newspapers and taught children. Rashid wrote poetry and short stories in his spare time, fancying himself a writer in a revolution.

The Pakistani army sent 100,000 soldiers into the mountains. The ensuing war claimed many lives, but it must have been a strange conflict, with the army attacking in the summer and the guerillas striking back in the winter. It dragged on in this fashion for 10 years. When life in the mountains became intolerable for the women and children, Rashid was put in charge of resettling them in Afghanistan.

Priceless Material

That was how he first came to Afghanistan, where he entered into negotiations with local clan leaders and warlords to determine where the families from Balochistan should be allowed to settle. He went on to Kabul on foot, and so it transpired that he was in Kabul in the winter of 1979/1980, when the Russians marched into the city. He had the good fortune that most historians never have.

The new situation in Afghanistan also affected the interests of the Pakistani army. Anxious to rid itself of the pointless war in Balochistan, it signed a ceasefire agreement with the tribes and offered the four revolutionaries the opportunity to return to the cities, promising them amnesty.

Rashid traveled to London to visit his parents and attend to his health. He saw a dentist, sought treatment for back pain and recuperated after years of physical exhaustion. Then he joined forces with a French photographer who had taken pictures of the Soviet tanks in Kabul, and the two men started knocking on doors at British newspapers. Of course, Rashid was interested in writing about the struggle for freedom in Balochistan, but the editors at the papers' foreign desks only pricked up their ears when they discovered that the two men had priceless material on the Soviet invasion in Afghanistan. And so Rashid ended up writing his first major article about Afghanistan and the superpower that had invaded the country to change conditions there.

Losing His Optimism

Was it worth it, spending almost 10 years masquerading as revolutionaries in the mountains? Rashid laughs and shrugs his shoulders. At least something new came of it, he says.

He could just as easily have died in Balochistan, and then he would indeed have become a minor Pakistani version of Ché Guevara. Instead, he began to travel and tried to understand what was happening in this complicated world into which he had been born. He became a historian, with a constant awareness that one day the conflict that had been raging in Afghanistan for years could spill over into Pakistan.

That day has come. For the Taliban, Lahore is Pakistan's New York. Ahmed Rashid, who has always been an optimist, is slowly losing his optimism.

Translated from the German by Christopher Sultan