Slowly but surely, the secretive superdelegates opt for Obama






· Clinton fights on but the tide favours frontrunner
· Some undeclared officials holding out for rewards

* Ewen MacAskill, Daniel Nasaw and Elana Schor in Washington
* The Guardian,
* Saturday May 10 2008


Barack Obama took a rare day off to spend time with his family at home in Chicago after Tuesday's primaries in Indiana and North Carolina. But he fitted in one trip to his campaign headquarters, to call the most-courted group in the US today, the 250-plus undeclared superdelegates who could settle the Democratic race.

After millions of votes cast in primaries and caucuses across the states since Iowa on January 3, the outcome of one of the most hotly contested campaigns in US political history now rests with this tiny group with automatic voting rights.

The US media describes the undeclared superdelegates as "undecided". The reality is most have decided privately on Obama, seeing him as the best chance to beat Republican John McCain in November and raise their chances of re-election in Congressional elections the same day.

Since Tuesday, Clinton has had the endorsement of three superdelegates while he has announced 13, including seven yesterday. His campaign team is dripping them out every few hours to wear her down, gleefully sending out emails to the media announcing the dwindling number of delegates he needs to reach the 2,025 target.

The momentum has been with him since the SuperTuesday contests on February 3. Since then, he has picked up 113 of the undeclared superdelegates to her 22.

Although there are six primaries left, the contest is effectively over. Obama is behaving - and being treated - as the presumptive nominee.

He brought the House of Representatives to a near standstill on Thursday with a surprise appearance, with members calling him "Mr President", with even a pro-Clinton congresswoman asking him to sign her newspaper.
Clinton, meanwhile, resembles an increasingly forlorn figure, campaigning in the now largely irrelevant primaries.

The political action is now with the undeclared superdelegates, about a third of whom are in Congress. He needs them to close the race by reaching the magic number - 2,025 - half of the delegates to be seated at the Democratic convention in August. He has 1,857 delegates to her 1,697, according to the Associated Press.

Over the past 48 hours, the Guardian contacted about 20 superdelegates, ranging from Congress members to more obscure party members in places such as Hawaii. They have been taking calls on an almost daily basis for months and have largely opted for formulaic responses, combined with sighs, and, in the case of one congressman's staff, swearing in exasperation.

The Democratic party chairman in Idaho, Keith Roark, admitted he had been worried by Obama's "nightmare weeks" in March and again last month, when he was engaged in a row over his former pastor, the Reverend Jeremiah Wright. But Obama's recovery in Tuesday's primaries had gone a long way towards allaying his fears. "I wouldn't say I'm necessarily leaning, but I'm getting much closer to making up my mind."

So why are the superdelegates stalling? Many do not want to make an enemy of Clinton, who may end up as vice-president, majority leader in the Senate or, if McCain wins in November, the Democratic frontrunner in 2012.

Jennifer Duffy, managing editor of the Cook political newsletter, said: "I don't think they see any upside to doing it. Putting Obama over the top will be ascribed to someone ... and nobody wants that level of notoriety, especially if you're an elected official."

Others are holding out for political favours. On Thursday a California superdelegate, Steven Ybarra, offered his vote in exchange for a promise to spend $20m (£10m) to help Mexican-Americans.

Democratic strategist Erick Mullen said: "Holding out at this point is a win-win because superdelegates will leverage their support for everything … There's no incentive to rush in for free now."

Democratic senator and superdelegate Ron Wyden, from Oregon, is resisting pressure. He wants support from both for his healthcare plan next year.

There is an argument in the party that it would be undemocratic for superdelegates to make the decision, and they should abide by results in the primaries and caucuses. But Helen Knetzer, a superdelegate from Wichita, Kansas, disagrees. Knetzer, who is inundated with calls daily, wants to wait until she has consulted her organisation, the National Federation of Democratic Women. "I've had calls and letters saying I should go along with what my state did. I wasn't elected by my state. I was elected by my organisation."

The remaining fantasy for Clinton supporters is that the contest could last through to the convention, at which point the superdelegates might override the will of the primaries and caucuses. Superdelegates recoil in horror at a scenario that would be seen as robbing Obama.

"That would be the Democratic party stabbing itself in the heart. I cannot imagine that would ever take place, and if it ever took place, I'm not sure there would be a Democratic party left," Roark said.