Correo de noticias al 04/03/08

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/europe/europe-vs-the-superrich-790863.html

EU declares war on tax havens
Europe vs the super-rich

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/mps-make-final-bid-to-force-referendum-on-europe-790867.html

MPs make final bid to force referendum on Europe

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/revealed-how-mi5-recruited-an-astrologer-in-plot-to-outwit-hitler-790876.html
Revealed: How MI5 recruited an astrologer in plot to outwit Hitler

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/the-moment-of-truth-for-clinton-as-mustwin-states-go-to-the-polls-790884.html
The moment of truth for Clinton as must-win states go to the polls
By Andrew Gumbel in Alice, Texas
Tuesday, 4 March 2008


The last time Bonnie Lee Haner voted in an election as significant as today's showdown between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama was 60 years ago, when Lyndon Johnson, the future president, lied, cheated and ultimately stole his way to a seat in the US Senate.


It's been that long since the Texas Democratic Party, a distinctly unhappy organisation in recent decades, enjoyed a place in the national spotlight. Ms Haner, now 94, has seen it all – as a member of a politically connected family directly caught up in Johnson's notorious act of vote theft, as an election clerk for five decades in the south Texas town of Alice – where Johnson stole his crucial last 200 votes, from the very ballot box where she voted – and, now, as an ardent Clinton supporter.

"In 1948, I was scared to tell them how I voted," she said – "them" being a local political machine run by a charismatic crook called George Parr. She voted for Johnson but she also witnessed a local election observer being manhandled out of her precinct and tossed into jail because he suspected the ballots were being manipulated.

While many things have changed in Ms Haner's part of Texas since 1948 – racial segregation, poll taxes and a near-feudal attitude by the local white elite towards the impoverished Mexican majority are all relics of the past – some others have not.

Politics in Alice is still marked by corruption and bitter infighting. Local people working as consultants to one candidate or another still offer money or services to voters in exchange for the right to "manage" their ballots. (They are sometimes known as "vote whores".) Envelopes containing absentee ballots get intercepted and steamed open in microwave ovens. Elected officials merrily boast that the dead remain surprisingly active in local politics, especially on election day.

Intriguingly, Mrs Clinton's battle to stay in the Democratic presidential nomination race bears distinct similarities to Johnson's senate race in 1948. Both are at a do-or-die stage of their political careers – Hillary because she can't afford to lose Texas, LBJ because the senate race was his last chance to stay in politics at all.

Mrs Clinton, like Johnson, is relying heavily on the Latino vote and she too regards Latino-dominated south Texas as a stronghold.

Here, though, is the difference. Even if Mrs Clinton's friends steal as many votes as Johnson's friends did 60 years ago – not that there are any indications they will try – it still won't help because of the tawdry mathematics of the race.

Texas apportions delegates according to the vote in its 31 state senate districts. That vote, in turn, is weighted according to turnout in the last two major elections – in this case, the 2006 governor's race and the 2004 presidential election. Since South Texas is still essentially a one-party region – the Democrats rule virtually every local office, as they have since the Civil War – it tends to see high turnout in primaries but very low turnout in general elections.

As a result, Mrs Clinton cannot win more than four delegates in each of the four biggest districts in south Texas. Barack Obama, by contrast, can take most or all of the eight delegates up for grabs in the main district in Austin, the state capital, which has a comparable voting population.

Mrs Clinton's campaign is further complicated by the way the Republicans – who have controlled the state legislature for the past two decades – have carved up the districts to disperse the Democratic vote, especially the African-American Democratic vote. In many districts, she will need to win more than 60 per cent of the vote to get a 3-1 delegate advantage, and will struggle mightily to reach that threshold because Obama-friendly African-Americans will stand in her way.

In other words, it's not just south Texas that has a dubious record of democratic fair play. The number crunchers estimate Mrs Clinton will need at least 55 per cent of the popular vote statewide just to stay even in the delegate count.

Adding an extra complication is the fact that one-third of the Texas delegates will be decided in precinct caucuses taking place as soon as the primary polls close at 7pm. The Obama campaign, which has been very good at turning out caucus participants everywhere from Iowa to Colorado, is jauntily calling this hybrid system the "Texas two-step". The Clinton campaign fancies its chances so little it is threatening to sue to have the entire caucus part of the election discarded – a very long shot indeed.

All that is a source of great frustration to Clinton fans in Alice. "The Clintons like Texas and the Texans, and we like people that like us," said former state representative Ernestine Glossbrenner. "And this is not unfamiliar territory to have a woman in power – we've been electing them since the 1960s."

What may be bad news for the Clinton machine, though, may not be bad news for Texas Democrats as a whole. South Texas, and the area's increasingly influential Latinos, in particular, felt attracted to George Bush when he was governor and when he ran for president but now feel betrayed and are swinging back into the Democratic camp.

President Bush, they say, has done nothing to solve a local water dispute with Mexico and is outraging them with his support for the construction of a border fence. They are concerned that decades of easy cross-border commerce may now be compromised.

"We're Democrats again," said David Guerrero, Alice's district clerk. Come November, that is the sort of boost likely to send either Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama to the White House.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/buildup-of-troops-on-colombias-borders-sparks-fears-of-war-790887.html?service=Print

Build-up of troops on Colombia's borders sparks fears of war
By Daniel Howden, Deputy Foreign Editor
Tuesday, 4 March 2008
Venezuela and Ecuador have moved troops to their respective borders with Colombia in a serious escalation of the worst crisis to hit the region for years. Both nations have frozen diplomatic ties with their neighbour in response to Colombia's killing of a left-wing guerrilla leader on Ecuadorean soil.
The incident has exposed the political fault lines in Latin America with Venezuela's President, Hugo Chavez, and his left-wing ally in Ecuador ranged against the US-backed Alvaro Uribe, the President of Colombia. Mr Chavez warned that any similar violation of its border by Colombia could spark a war.
Ecuador's President, Raphael Correa, said there could be "no justification" for the killing of Raul Reyes, thought to be the number two in Colombia's Farc rebellion, along with 16 other guerrillas in a bombing raid on Saturday.
In a further sign of hostilities, President Chavez's government said last night that it was expelling Colombia's ambassador and other diplomats from Venezuela.
Colombia accuses the Farc of using bases in Ecuador and Venezuela to launch attacks inside the country. Mr Uribe, whose father was kidnapped and killed by the guerrillas, has refused direct negotiations with the rebels and pursued a military solution, assisted by the largest US military aid budget outside the Middle East.
Fidel Castro, who retired as President of Cuba last month, voiced his support for Venezuela and Ecuador in an essay published in the Communist Party daily Granma. "We can plainly hear the trumpets of war to the south of our continent as a consequence of genocidal plans of the Yankee empire," Mr Castro wrote.
Regional analysts were surprised by Colombia's border incursion and said that while the escalation was largely posturing for domestic audiences, a conflict was possible. "This is an alarming degeneration in the region and has ominous overtones that could lead to provocative developments," said Larry Birns, director of the Council on Hemispheric Affairs, a Washington think-tank.
Venezuela's border with Colombia is already rife with drug and gun-runners, paramilitaries and guerrilla forces and the arrival of thousands more troops on both sides threatens to turn what has been a war of words into a shooting war. "There's no question of the enormous political tension now and any miscue could set off a conflict," said Michael Shifter, a vice-president of the Inter-American Dialogue group in Washington.
The Colombian raid, in which bombers were backed up by ground forces, has also complicated the fate of dozens of high-profile hostages, including Americans and a French citizen, held by the Farc.
France's Foreign Minister, Bernard Kouchner, expressed his dismay at the killing, saying that the dead rebel leader had been their contact in negotiations to free Ingrid Betancourt, a former Colombian presidential candidate who also holds French nationality.
"It is bad news that the man we were talking to, with whom we had contacts, has been killed," M. Kouchner told France Inter radio. Mme Betancourt has been held hostage in the Colombian jungle for six years. Mr Chavez has played a prominent role in the recent release of Farc hostages after offering to mediate between Bogota and the guerrillas. However, the two presidents fell out very publicly during the protracted negotiations.
The key figures
*HUGO CHAVEZ
Charismatic commando turned politician who has used Venezuela's oil bonanza to start a "Bolivarian revolution". Critics call him a divisive firebrand; supporters say he is a champion of the poor.
*ALVARO URIBE
Staunch US ally and right-wing populist who has won two commanding election victories in Colombia.
Uribe's hatred for Farc guerrillas stems from the death of his father.
*RAPHAEL CORREA
Young left-wing economist and former minister who clinched a surprise win at the last Ecuadorean elections. Part of the so-called "pink tide" of socialist leaders in Latin America.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/europe/a-guide-to-europes-tax-havens-790860.html?service=Print
A guide to Europe's tax havens
They are costing the EU billions each year, but where are the tax havens and what do they offer?

Tuesday, 4 March 2008


ANDORRA

The Haven
One of the world’s smallest independent nations, with a highly secretive tax system. Highest average life expectancy in the world (83 years)

What does it offer?
No income tax, Capital Gains Tax, sales tax or death duties and an import tax of around 2 to 5 per cent. It maintains absolute discretion with foreign tax authorities. The taxes levied on businesses do not affect expatriates.

Who wins?
The Spanish soprano Montserrat Caballé, the former tennis player Arantxa Sánchez-Vicario and the French motorcycling champion Cyril Despres.


CHANNEL ISLANDS

The Haven
Guernsey and Jersey have supplemented falling tourist numbers with tax incentives and a boom in discreet financial services.

What does it offer?
Both offer a comparatively low 20 per cent income tax for residents, no inheritance tax and no CGT. Non-doms can negotiate how much of their income the taxman can get his hands on. Trusts, IBCs and limited partnerships benefit.

Who wins?
The world’s super-rich are estimated to have £247bn of assets in Jersey. Property owners include the former Formula One champion Nigel Mansell.


ISLE OF MAN

The Haven
A self-governing Crown Dependency which is able to levy its own taxes. It is increasingly popular with US-based and online gambling companies.

What does it offer?
Zero corporate tax rate, a £100,000 cap on taxable income and no CGT, stamp duties or death duties. VAT on income tax, but the latter is kept at a low maximum rate by a government committed to keeping to a zero-tax strategy.

Who wins?
John Whittaker, the owner of Liverpool’s John Lennon airport, and PokerStars, the internet gambling site.


LIECHTENSTEIN

The Haven
An independent relic of the Holy Roman Empire, the tiny Alpine monarchy has used its reputation for banking secrecy to create assets worth at least £75bn.

What does it offer?
Comparatively low business taxes (a maximum of 18 per cent), a basic personal income tax rate of 1.2 per cent and absolute financial discretion. Banks and “discreet” financial services account for 14.3 per cent of the workforce.

Who wins?
5,000 businesses in a country with 35,000 residents. At least 100 British residents are avoiding £100m taxes according to HMRC. The late Robert Maxwell was one.


MONACO

The Haven
The second smallest independent state in the world with an estimated GDP of £450m, it thrives off its gambling, tourist and financial firms.

What does it offer?
For those rich enough to win resident status, no personal income tax or CGT combined with a strong record for banking secrecy and non-cooperation with European countries who want to find out who avoids taxes there.

Who wins?
The former Beatle Ringo Starr, the actor Sir Roger Moore, and Tina Green, wife of the retail billionaire Philip Green.


SWITZERLAND

The Haven
Switzerland’s cantons have been able to levy their own tax system for foreigners. Competition between cantons has kept incentives high.

What does it offer?
The former Beatle Ringo Starr, the actor Sir Roger Moore, and Tina Green, wife of the retail billionaire Philip Green.

Who wins?
The Formula One driver Lewis Hamilton, the musician Phil Collins, the Wimbledon champion Boris Becker and the singer Tina Turner.


http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2008/03/04/index.php?section=politica&article=003n1pol
Luego de reunirse con AMLO informa que presentará sendas demandas ante PGR y SFP
Anuncia el FAP estrategia común para lograr la renuncia de Mouriño
■ Tráfico de influencias y colusión de servidores públicos, cargos
■ Está absolutamente metido en irregularidades y delitos al firmar contratos con Pemex, señala Javier González Garza
Alma E, Muñoz, Ciro Pérez y Enrique Méndez


http://www.jornada.unam.mx/2008/03/04/index.php?section=economist&article=022n1eiu

Economist Itelligence Unit
México
Petróleo: ¿la reforma que viene?

Cantarell, en el Golfo de México, fue alguna vez el yacimiento petrolífero submarino más grande del mundo, con una reserva original de 35 mil millones de barriles. Ahora, después de casi tres décadas, se está agotando. Durante su pico, en 2004, produjo 2.1 millones de barriles por día (b/d), que representaban 60% de la producción total de México. Esa cifra ha caído ya más de 500 mil b/d y podría descender otros 200 mil antes de la primavera.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2008/mar/04/nationalarchives.secondworldwar


National Archives
Star turn: astrologer who became SOE's secret weapon against Hitler

How Britain tried to exploit the Führer's supposed superstitions

The Special Operations Executive, set up by Churchill with instructions to "set Europe ablaze", is best known for blowing up bridges and helping the resistance in occupied countries. But in the darkest days of the second world war it looked to the heavens for help.


http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/mar/04/shortestworldleader

Who is the shortest world leader?

* Jon Henley
This article appeared in the Guardian on Tuesday March 04 2008 on p3 of the Comment & features section. It was last updated at 00:02 on March 04 2008.

Until yesterday there was little argument about the holder of this coveted title: at 162cm, or a shade over 5ft 3in, Kim Jong-il, supreme commander of the Korean People's Army, general secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea and Great Leader of the People's Democratic Republic of North Korea, stood head and shoulders below the rest of the field. The only other man in with a shout, according to the list at shortsupport.org, was Nicolas Sarkozy, president of France, who stands 168cm, or just over 5ft 5in tall. This may make him about 4in shorter than Mrs Sarkozy, but is unlikely to give Kim many sleepless nights.



http://lifeandhealth.guardian.co.uk/drink/story/0,,2261841,00.html

Tippling point

Global warming and changing tastes are putting the squeeze on Europe's traditional vineyards. We are now in a 'post-classic' era of boozier, bolder wine. Robert Joseph explains how old favourites may taste soon - and why Finnish merlot may be on the menu

Tuesday March 4, 2008
The Guardian



http://www.jornada.unam.mx/ultimas/2008/03/04/suspenden-a-cientifico-por-falsificar-investigaciones-sobre-cancer/

Suspenden a científico por falsificar investigaciones sobre cáncer

Kim Tae-Kook amañó sus resultados publicados en dos revistas científicas en julio de 2005 y julio de 2006.

AFP
Publicado: 04/03/2008 09:39

Seúl. Un científico surcoreano sospechoso de falsificar el resultado de sus trabajos sobre el cáncer fue suspendido y sometido a una investigación disciplinaria, indicó hoy martes una fuente universitaria.


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/04/world/middleeast/04nations.html?_r=1&th=&oref=slogin&emc=th&pagewanted=print


March 4, 2008
Security Council Adds Sanctions Against Iran
By WARREN HOGE and ELAINE SCIOLINO

UNITED NATIONS — The Security Council on Monday adopted its third resolution imposing sanctions on Iran for its refusal to cease enriching uranium, an activity that the West suspects Iran may be using to create fuel for a nuclear weapon.

The previous two measures gained the unanimous support of the 15-member panel, but in balloting on Monday Indonesia abstained, saying it “remained to be convinced of the efficacy of adopting additional sanctions at this juncture.” Fourteen countries voted in favor.

The resolution authorizes inspections of cargo to and from Iran that is suspected of carrying prohibited equipment, tightens the monitoring of Iranian financial institutions and extends travel bans and asset freezes against persons and companies involved in the nuclear program.

It adds 13 names to the existing list of 5 individuals and 12 companies subject to travel and asset restrictions. The new names include people with direct responsibility for building fast-spinning centrifuges that enrich uranium ore and a brigadier general engaged in “efforts to get around the sanctions” in the two earlier resolutions.

Enriched uranium is used to power nuclear reactors for civilian use. But highly enriched uranium can be used as fuel for a nuclear weapon. The new measure also bans all trade and supply of so-called dual-use items, materials and technologies that can be adapted for military as well as civilian ends.

Earlier on Monday in Vienna, Mohamed ElBaradei, the director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations nuclear monitor, said newly disclosed intelligence reports that Iran had secretly researched how to make nuclear weapons were of “serious concern” and would be pursued by his office.

“Iran continues to maintain that these alleged weaponization studies related to conventional weapons only are fabricated,” Dr. ElBaradei said in a speech to the agency’s 35-country policy-making body. “However a full-fledged examination of this issue has yet to take place.”

The studies were described last Monday, in a briefing by Olli Heinonen, the agency’s senior inspector.

They included sketches and a video that appeared to have come from Iran’s own military laboratories, and Mr. Heinonen said they showed work “not consistent with any application other than the development of a nuclear weapon.”

In a thinly veiled criticism of Iran, Dr. ElBaradei said, “I urge Iran to be as active and cooperative as possible in working with the agency to clarify this matter of serious concern.”

Iran says that the agency’s findings support its claim that its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes, and it has rejected all suggestions that it was studying how to make nuclear weapons.

Iran’s ambassador to the agency, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, called the intelligence data “forged and fabricated” and denounced the new Security Council resolution on Monday as “irresponsible” and “an arrow aiming at the heart of” the atomic energy agency.

Iran argues that its program is devoted solely to producing fuel for nuclear reactors that generate electricity. The United States and its European allies on the Council contend that the real purpose is to make Iran an atomic power, and they say they are determined to prevent that from happening.

The resolution approved Monday was originally scheduled for a decision on Friday, but its two sponsors, Britain and France, delayed consideration in the hope of getting as close to unanimity as possible. In addition to Indonesia, three other Council countries — Libya, South Africa and Vietnam — had expressed reservations.

To address them, the final version included last-minute language changes making it clear that cargo inspections must conform to local and international laws and stressing the central role of the International Atomic Energy Agency and evidence in the latest report from Dr. ElBaradei on Feb. 22 that Iran was cooperating with the agency.

The resolution extends the reach of punishments in the two earlier measures, adopted in December 2006 and March 2007, but it does not make them tougher.

The text was drawn up after months of talks among the Council’s five permanent members — Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States — and Germany, which is not a Council member.

It repeats a pledge from the six countries to establish full relations and economic cooperation with Iran should it agree to suspend enrichment-related and reprocessing activities.

In Vienna, Britain, France and Germany said they were preparing a draft resolution critical of Iran that could be adopted by the agency’s policy-making group this week. The United States, Canada, Australia and Japan have already indicated privately that they will support such a move.

It would be the first time that the board had passed such a resolution on Iran since it referred Iran’s nuclear behavior to the Security Council for review two years ago.

The United States, which in the past has criticized Dr. ElBaradei for not being tough enough on Iran, expressed support for that approach. “Despite some progress in addressing past issues, troubling questions remain about Iranian activities that strongly suggest a clandestine weapons-related program,” Gregory L. Schulte, the American envoy to the agency, told reporters in Vienna.

He added, “Between the indications of weapons work, which would constitute a violation of Iran’s treaty obligations and Iran’s blatant violations of Security Council resolutions, there is strong reason for Iran’s file to remain open both in New York and in Vienna.”

Warren Hoge reported from the United Nations, and Elaine Sciolino from Paris.


http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/04/business/04cash.html?th=&emc=th&pagewanted=print

March 4, 2008
Unlike Consumers, Companies Are Piling Up Cash
By DIANA B. HENRIQUES

At least someone knows how to fill a piggy bank.

Unlike most American consumers, whose failure to save has exasperated economists for years, the typical American corporation has increased its savings so sharply that it probably has enough cash on hand to completely pay off its debts.

That should be good news in an economy unsettled by rising energy prices, tightening credit, gyrating stock prices and declining values for the dollar and the family homestead. Indeed, the Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, cited strong corporate balance sheets as a bright spot in the darkening forecast he presented to Congress last week.

Some analysts also speculate that these cash-rich companies may start sharing their wealth with investors through special dividends, providing welcome stimulus for the economy.

Corporate spending on equipment and other capital expenditures has declined as savings have soared, suggesting that companies could stimulate the economy now by going on a hiring and spending spree. But that raises worries among some analysts that companies will spend their cash unwisely, making them more vulnerable in the future.

The increase over the last decade in the amount of cash, as a percent of total assets, for the companies in the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index has been steep. One study shows that the average cash ratio doubled from 1998 to 2004 and the median ratio more than tripled, while debt levels fell. According to S.& P., the total cash held by companies in its industrial index exceeded $600 billion in February, up from about $203 billion in 1998.

René M. Stulz, who holds the Reese chair in banking and monetary economics at the Fisher College of Business at Ohio State University, said research he conducted with two other professors on corporate cash levels since 1980 indicated that growing cash holdings over that period most likely reflected the simple fact that the world became a much riskier place for business.

“Companies responded to those rising risks by saving more,” said Professor Stulz, whose study excluded utilities and financial companies because their cash reserves are monitored by regulators.

An even longer savings trend was spotted by Jason DeSena Trennert, managing partner and chief investment strategist at Strategas Research Partners in New York, who said his own rough examination of corporate balance sheets shows that “cash, as a percent of total assets, is as high as it’s been since the 1960s.”

The ledgers of many individual companies bear out these findings. For example, the cash ratio at Paychex — cash and short-term investments as a percent of total assets — has more than doubled, from less than 30 percent in 1988 to more than 70 percent by last summer. Over the same period, Apple’s cash ratio grew to more than 60 percent, from just over 38 percent.

The cash ratio at Avon Products, just under 3 percent in 1988, was nearly 17 percent by last December. And Microsoft’s savings account is so large that its chief financial officer has observed that the company could, if it wished, cover most of the $20 billion cash component of its pending $44.6 billion offer for Yahoo from its own reserves.

This cash-saving trend may have a downside, though. Because companies can spend from their own account without scrutiny from the investment bankers or commercial bankers who might otherwise lend them money, corporate executives can do some really dumb things with their cash, said Amy Dittmar, an assistant professor at the Ross School of Business at the University of Michigan, who has studied corporate spending habits in the United States and abroad.

“There is a subtle line between having enough money to do what you have to do versus having enough money to do anything you want to do,” Professor Dittmar said.

Manny Weintraub, a former managing director and top-performing money manager for Neuberger Berman who formed his own investment advisory firm in late 2003, agreed. “Like your mother told you, the rule should be that if you don’t have anything nice to buy, don’t buy anything,” he said.

The Stulz team’s study showed that this trend of rising cash ratios was not limited to very large corporations — indeed, the average increase is more pronounced among firms below the top one-fifth of the sample.

Over the same time, the study found, one measure of corporate debt — the net debt ratio, or debt minus cash as a percent of total assets — fell so sharply that, by 2004, it was below zero, where it stayed at least through 2006.

“In other words,” the researchers noted, “on average, firms could have paid off their debt with their cash holdings.”

Those who study corporate balance sheets suggest that several factors have contributed to this change in corporate savings patterns.

In the last 25 years, the speed and scale of globalization have increased sharply. That shift to worldwide markets confronted companies with increased currency risks, political risks and new competition — all adding to the overall risk of doing business.

During the same period, conglomerates and similarly diversified companies fell out of favor, as Wall Street looked for “pure plays” and companies narrowed their focus to a few core businesses — in effect, putting more of their eggs in fewer baskets.

That left those companies more vulnerable to any event that shook those baskets, Professor Dittmar explained. “When firms become less diverse and more focused, they become more volatile,” she said. And when that happens, they need cash to cushion the bumps.

While rising risks may explain most of these changing patterns, other business trends may also have had an impact.

For example, the Stulz team’s paper shows that rising cash levels were, to some degree, influenced by a drop in capital spending on hard assets, which can be used as collateral for borrowing. Similarly, the study found, as companies increased their focus on research and development investments, which are not as useful for borrowing purposes, cash levels rose.

Moreover, cash has traditionally been just one component of “working capital,” along with inventories and accounts receivable. But innovations like “just in time” supply chains and faster payment systems have reduced the role of inventories and accounts receivable and, conversely, raised the role of cash on corporate balance sheets, Professor Dittmar said.

Adding to that, the corporate universe now contains a higher percentage of the companies that have traditionally held lots of cash, notably technology companies. These companies now make up about 45 percent of the economy, up from less than 30 percent in 1980. That would inevitably increase the overall averages for cash ratios.

The study by the Stulz team, however, specifically allowed for that change — and found that even among technology companies, the ratio of cash on the balance sheets has grown sharply over that period.

According to Mr. Trennert, the cash ratios at technology companies have doubled since 2000.

With cash levels this high, Mr. Trennert said he expected that some companies — those that also have high levels of insider ownership — may elect to pay a special dividend in the coming year, ahead of any future change in the favorable tax treatment those dividends now receive. “If I were a C.E.O.’s tax lawyer, that would certainly be my advice,” he said.

As the Stulz team noted, this trend is in many ways paradoxical and unexpected. In the last 25 years there has been an explosion in financial products intended to help companies manage risk — from currency devaluations to commodity shortages.

“We would expect improvements in financial technology to reduce cash holdings,” the researchers noted.

And yet, corporations have continued to cope with risk the old-fashioned way: by saving for a rainy day. That suggests that either corporations are not making sufficient use of risk-management tools, or that the tools themselves — while helpful — are inadequate to cope with the increased levels of risk that companies now confront, Professor Stulz said.

Some veteran investors also suggest another factor that may have encouraged the growth in cash ratios. Mr. Weintraub, the money manager, pointed out that in the years examined in the Stulz team’s study, Wall Street started giving greater weight to balance-sheet strength.

Though that focus clearly faltered during the technology stock bubble of the late 1990s, it is coming back into vogue in today’s uncertain times, said Quincy Krosby, an economist and chief investment strategist at the Hartford, an insurance and financial services company.

With the markets so unsteady, companies with soft stock prices and solid balance sheets are attracting attention from institutional investors, she said, in part because the companies, especially in the technology realm, have enough cash to expand their market share through acquisitions.

But won’t big cash cushions turn these companies into sitting ducks for leveraged-buyout firms or foreign buyers spending today’s remarkably cheap dollars?

Maybe not — or, at least, maybe not yet.

Professor Dittmar noted that the credit squeeze has made it less likely that highly leveraged private equity funds can go gunning for cash-rich companies, as they have in the past.

Political pressures, meanwhile, are likely to protect American companies from hostile foreign buyers — certainly through an election year, and even longer if the Democrats take the White House and make gains in Congress, Mr. Weintraub noted.

But, with the debt-burdened American consumer cutting back, wouldn’t the risk of a recession decline if companies with overstuffed wallets took their cash out and spent it?

Emphatically not, said Professor Stulz. Research strongly suggests that companies are holding more cash because they need it to operate more safely in a risky environment, he said.

“If they spend it, they will become more fragile,” he added. “And an increase in the number of fragile firms is not in the best interests of the economy.”


http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/mar/04/uselections2008.usa


12am GMT

Exit polls give Obama 12th straight win

* Ewen MacAskill in Austin and Daniel Nasaw in Washington
* guardian.co.uk,
* Wednesday March 5 2008

Barack Obama is on course tonight to stretch his winning streak over Hillary Clinton to 12 by taking the Vermont primary, according to exit polls.

Released when balloting closed at 7.00pm, the exit polls predicted a win for Obama. John McCain was predicted to win the Republican race.

Voting was continuing in the other three contests being held today - Texas, Ohio and Rhode Island - where the outcome was expected to be much closer.

…



http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/audio/2008/mar/04/jo.tuckman.podcast

'The first royal Aztec tomb ever found'

Jo Tuckman reports from Mexico city where archaeologists believe they have found the funeral chamber of the most powerful Aztec king


http://image.guim.co.uk/audio/1204634136721/1347/gdn.nws.080204.tm.jo_tuckman.mp3


http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2008/mar/04/medicalresearch.health1


Cutting TV time makes children healthier, says US study

* James Randerson, science correspondent
* The Guardian,
* Tuesday March 4 2008

This article appeared in the Guardian on Tuesday March 04 2008 on p10 of the UK news section. It was last updated at 09:05 on March 04 2008.

Stopping children from watching TV really does make them healthier and less fat, according to one of the few studies to observe the effects of intervening directly in their watching habits.


http://football.guardian.co.uk/Match_Report/0,,2262229,00.html

Fábregas shakes San Siro as Arsenal topple the champions


Kevin McCarra at San Siro
Wednesday March 5, 2008
The Guardian

Cesc Fábregas eliminated the Champions League holders with a 30-yarder that was no bolt from the blue. That skimming drive, six minutes from the end, smacked of the inevitable. Arsenal were everything that Milan once were, overflowing with technique and energy to dominate the match. So inexhaustible were Arsène Wenger's side that the substitute Theo Walcott beat Kakha Kaladze in stoppage time before squaring for Emmanuel Adebayor to score a second.

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