No US shield – no Russian missiles in Europe

19 September, 2009, 17:29

Russia’s Defence Ministry confirms Moscow will not place Iskander missiles in the Kaliningrad region near Poland. Previously, Russia intended to deploy them in response to US plans for its AMD shield in Eastern Europe.

Washington, however, has now dropped its Bush-era plans.

In a reciprocal move, Russia said it could abandon plans to deploy tactical missiles in its Baltic exclave in response to the US decision to drop its missile shield plans for Eastern Europe.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense said on Saturday that after the US reassessment of the anti-missile shield there is now no need for the stationing of an inventory of Iskander missiles in the country’s Kaliningrad Region.

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What is particularly impressive is the speed at which the two superpowers changed their minds on this very controversial issue of the two missile-defense shield programs.

It was on Thursday that President Barack Obama announced his decision to scrap George W. Bush’s plan for a shield in Poland and the Czech Republic. It took barely 24 hours for a response from Moscow to scrap its own plans of setting up a missile-defense system in the western Kaliningrad region, which would have been squeezed between two EU and NATO members – Poland and Lithuania.

The Iskander missile has a range of 280 kilometers and constantly changes its trajectory in flight, which helps it penetrate the enemy’s air defenses. Each missile vehicle has two missiles that can be launched at different targets with a one minute interval.

Meanwhile, Anders Fogh Rasmussen said that a group of twelve NATO experts, headed by former US Secretary of State Dr Madeleine Albright, could have a meeting with Russian security specialists.

The group, appointed to lay the ground for NATO’s new Strategic Concept, is now considering a visit to Moscow for a discussion with Russian security specialists, Rasmussen noted. He stressed, however, that they work independently, so they will make the decision on that on their own. In addition, he pointed out that, in case they decide to do so, he would support that move.

The reasons for a major shift

The Obama administration says that the decision to change its plans on missile defense is not about making concessions to Russia or asking for concessions from Russia. Rather, it is based on a reassessment of global security threats, particularly those coming from Iran, which is something Russia has been calling on for years.

The report from US intelligence says the Iranian long-range missile program is progressing too slowly and is not dangerous at the moment, and the more immediate threat comes from Iran’s middle and short-range missiles.

Commenting on the decision of Obama’s administration, President Medvedev said “The fact that such signals are coming is very good. This shows that our American partners are at least willing to listen to Russia's reasoning and position. It shows they're willing to talk and take decisions aimed at easing the situation.”

Medvedev pointed out that “We were against the idea of a US missile shield in Eastern Europe from the very beginning. And if this idea is not realized in its original form – it would be very good for Europe and for Russian-American relations.”

Konstantin Sivkov, the Vice President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems, says the prospects following the U.S. decision not to deploy missiles in Europe are not necessarily rosy.

“The U.S. decision to drop its missile defense plans is positive. But it's not a breakthrough that gives the U.S. and NATO the right to demand military and technical concessions from Russia,” he said.

“One of the new radars and naval missile components could be set up in the Caucasus, anyway. Georgia has already agreed to host the radar. By temporarily dropping its missile shield, the U.S. is just trying to sell a dead cat for good money,” Sivkov said.

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Change in mood in Poland

With the majority of European countries having reacted to Obama’s decision and the subsequent events with celebration, initial reports indicated a totally different mood in Poland, where the majority of its population was said to be in favor of the old proposals from the United States.

However, according to the most recent opinion poll taken in this country, where people were asked about what they think of the US decision to shelve the AMD system in Poland, almost half of all respondents – about 48% – answered it was good for their country, while 31% were in favor of the old shield plans.

“Change in missile defense plans a trump card up US sleeve”

19 September, 2009, 18:06

One possible scenario is that Americans will now be pressing Russia to help them deal with Iran, thinks political analyst Viktoria Panova.

By abandoning its initial plans of building an anti-missile defense shield in Poland and the Czech Republic, Washington wanted to show “the positive way America thinks now.”

It was also done, Panova said, “to have some trumps up its sleeve.”

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“America could say: Ok, we’ve done that, but we can reverse it or continue either with this scenario or a slightly modified one,” she said.

“America can push Russia either on Iran or another issue of concern, so it’s very similar to what it was during the last days of the Soviet Union when America was playing with the ABM system being developed.”

Then, using that “threat” as an instrument, the US managed to alter the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty that Russia was pushing for into a more favorable one for America.

Czechs relieved of radar base and democracy, too

19 September, 2009, 07:34

About 60 km south of Prague, the people in Trokavec say they can now rest easy after winning a 2 year fight against the planned US anti-missile defence system.

Feelings of relief and happiness have settled on this small Czech village in the Brdy mountains following the announcement by Barack Obama on missile defence, which was met with mixed reactions across Europe, where some politicians voiced anger and others relief that the U.S. missile defence was shelved.

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Its radar base was going to be located just 2 kilometers from Trokavec, something villagers fiercely opposed.

Local residents told RT they are really happy and welcome the U.S. decision with open arms now that the radar will not be there, because “world problems shouldn’t be solved by placing radars” – near their homes and because, for them, “the radar would not bring anything positive”.

And they’re not alone in their opinion – around 70 other Czechs were against hosting the missile shield in their country.

The base was going to be built in a vast expanse of forest, which is actually a military zone, but nearby residents feared it was a threat to their health and safety and perhaps could make the Czech Republic vulnerable to attack from outside states. Unlike in neighbouring Poland, the Czech Republic never felt it needed the anti-missile defense system to boost their national security and, instead, felt they had all the protection they needed from being a member of NATO.

Despite strong objections, the Czech government chose not to hold a national referendum on the issue. So local villages took the matter into their own hands, to ensure their voices were heard.

“I created the League of Mayors which had 57 members from surrounding villages. We took our fight all over Europe to convince the governments and parliaments that we are totally against the AMD system, despite what our own leadership was saying,” says Jan Neoral, the mayor of Trokavec.

And while their cause has now been won, some still feel disappointed in the way their own government handled the issue.

Jan Tamas, from the “Non-Violence” movement, says “we are a little bit disappointed that it had to be the U.S. government that brought that project to an end and that it was not the Czech government that has been for years ignoring the will of the majority of Czechs.”

“This is really a sad day for democracy in our country, that our future had to be decided outside of our country,” Tamas declares.

But overall there’s been a smooth acceptance, both politically and socially, to the news that the radar base is no more.

So for the residents of Trokavec, its time to breath a sigh of relief and get back to more pressing matters at hand.