A YEAR OF MEDVEDEV
Untimely Thoughts
Peter Lavelle's blog
A year of Medvedev
Dmitry Medvedev was elected president of the Russian Federation a year ago. How has he fared and in what direction(s) is he going? The short answers are: he is doing relatively well under the circumstances and he will continue to leave his own mark through time.
Who rules?
This topic generates a lot of headlines, but there is preciously little real analysis. Does Medvedev run the country or does Prime Minister Vladimir Putin? The answer is Medvedev does. However, he has delegated an enormous amount of his power to Putin. After all, it needs to be remembered that the position of prime minister is to oversee the economy (or anything else the president wants this person to oversee). The essence of the Medvedev-Putin “tandem” goes something like this – Medvedev is charged with the “vision thing” and Putin is supposed to make it happen. However there is a caveat, something few ever point out: Medvedev and Putin have remarkably similar views about Russia and the way they would like to see the country go. It seems to me the only great difference is that Medvedev is a liberal who looks to the state to solve problems and Putin is a statist who supports a fundamentally liberal agenda according to Russian conditions. The difference in accent does (and should) cause some tension between the two from time to time. (This, of course, demonstrates a positive dynamic in Russian politics that the commentariat almost always deny).
Is Medvedev a stalking horse for Putin’s return?
I really don’t think so. Again, I will ask an uncomfortable question: Is Putin really intent on undermining the political system he helped to create? I really doubt it. I strongly believe he wants Medvedev to be a successful president and that building and strengthening political institutions do count. This would vindicate his support of Medvedev to succeed him. Does it annoy Putin when Medvedev criticizes the government’s performance during the global economic turndown – well yes, of course it does! But I think Putin would be more annoyed if the president didn’t. Medvedev learned everything he knows about politics from Putin. The pupil is only acting out what he learned from his teacher.
Medvedev making his own mark
Slowly but surely we are witnessing Medvedev leave his own impression on the Russian presidency. Medvedev has already been tested and he has earned high marks. The first real challenge was Georgia’s pre-emptive war against South Ossetia. Medvedev stood firm every step of the way and turned back this western-supported aggression and he also gave security assurances to the newly independent states of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Then there is the financial crisis. Interestingly, this crisis has been dropped into Putin’s lap. I am more than sure that the “tandem” never expected that Russia would have to down-size and fundamentally re-gig macroeconomic policy. This has been forced upon Russia from the outside and there is no other option than to deal with hard reality. To date, Medvedev and Putin have responded accordingly. At the same time, like most of the world, Russia is far from out of the woods.
The transmigration of the “tandem”
Change is always happening. Those who try to halt it or over-manage it are usually punished. I see the “tandem” recognizing this. Medvedev is growing his feet to fit into Putin’s political shoes. This will still take a while. And I think Putin will do much to help this process along. But I have no illusions. Putin remains a significant, if not the most significant, powerbroker in today’s Russia. Though I see no evidence that Putin undermines Medvedev’s approach and policy orientation.
In lieu of a conclusion
Is Medvedev a “kinder and gentler version” of Putin? Maybe. Most underestimate how Putin saved Russia from collapse during his time in office. Today’s mission for Medvedev is to learn from Putin’s successes and better them. I can’t think of a better compliment from the current president to the man that was instrumental in helping him to become president. The “tandem” is working and benefiting Medvedev – just as Putin envisioned it would.
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