Troubled Tandem?
Peter Lavelle's blog
Is the power tandem of President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in trouble? Is duel power antithetical to Russian power culture and institutions? Is it inevitable that only one can rule and in the end eventually one of the two will “step aside?” All of these questions are being debated and with every passing day with greater intensity. However, few have reflected on just how well the tandem is performing.
I will be up front from the get go – I didn’t think Putin would really accept the position of prime minister when Medvedev offered him the job during the presidential campaign last year. In retrospect, I am glad he did. Events over the past year have demonstrated that Russia needs all the leadership it can get. And Russia is fortunate that Medvedev and Putin are close allies with a similar mindset (though differing approaches).
What’s all the fuss about?
Over the past year we are told that only one person can govern as leader. We are also told that Russia’s political culture and institutions are resistant to power sharing at the highest level. In theory I am very swayed by these arguments. However, facts and experience tell us something very different. One member of the tandem is the leader, but both men have shown that they lead the country. And in the larger context of things, it is remarkable how well both have settled into their new roles. Both Medvedev and Putin have had to navigate some amazingly turbulent waters: Saakashvili’s aggression against South Ossetia last August and the on-going global recession.
During the South Ossetian conflict, Putin probably could have easily made the case that the country’s most experienced leader needed to return to the presidency because of national security. But he didn’t. Instead he worked in tandem with Medvedev to manage the crisis. The same applies to the global slump. The majority of Russia’s current economic and financial order came into being during the years of the Putin presidency – who best could manage this on-going crisis? Of course the answer is Putin. Again this has not happened. The hard reality is that it is Putin who has the most thankless job in Russia – managing the economy for his boss Medvedev.
What are the drawbacks of the tandem?
The Medvedev-Putin tandem is working, but there are issues that need serious consideration. Medvedev inherited a stable political environment created by Putin. It is understandable many in the political and business elites continue to be very deferential toward the prime minister during times of uncertainty and even crisis. It would be better to see greater institutional development in Russia, but at the moment other issues are far more important.
I think it is important to point out that many who did quite well for themselves during the Putin presidency turned to the current prime minister for financial aid and other favors but did not get them. Of course this did not score Putin any points, but at the same time the tandem remains intact. I disagree with some commentators that the tandem, particularly Putin, has put the financial interests of some above the interests of the nation. As long as the tandem remains united, we can expect the disgruntled to be powerless to confront the current constitutional order.
What about domestic politics? How should the tandem be regarded in terms of political parties’ development, the opposition’s response and the regions?
I remain very dissatisfied with the development of political parties over the past year. I had hoped (probably naively) that United Russia would rise to the occasion and make managing the current crisis its hallmark policy plank. Well it hasn’t happened and this is a missed opportunity to distinguish itself as an important element of domestic politics. However, other political parties and politicians have done no better – if not worse. Garry Kasparov, Mikhail Kasyanov (Misha 2%), and Boris Nemtsov continue to make fools out of themselves and provide the average Russian voter reason enough to vote for United Russia. The opposition’s commissions and omissions continue to make the party of power inarticulate and the party of last resort when it comes to elections.
Russia’s regions have reacted to the crisis accordingly and not necessarily because of the existence of the tandem. Being a governor in a Russian region is no easy task – all must answer to the center. I do not have a problem with this, but the governors do. There has been too much needless commentary on whether Medvedev or Putin is in charge of the governors. The fact is that so much discussion about regional leadership and the tandem has given the governors wiggle room to underperform as budgets are changed and downsized. On the upside, irrespective of the ins and outs of the tandem, the governors are being called to account. This can only be a good thing.
Then there is the issue of corruption.
Those of us who follow Russian affairs closely had noticed that the courts face more and more corruption cases. This is as it should be. During the financial crisis, the average Russian suffers the most, but it is about time the fat cats of bribes and extortion of small and medium size businesses be made accountable for what is so terribly wrong about the new Russia. For too long those who procure enormous sums because of their status in the state’s bloated bureaucracy are being called on the carpet. Many kinds of state corruption were unduly tolerated while the economy expanded year after year. Today this is not the case and it is an opportunity for the tandem to really make good on it words to tackle this social ill. There is no evidence that the tandem disagree on this course.
In lieu of a conclusion
Do Medvedev and Putin disagree on things from time to time? Of course they do. But both have so much more in common that it makes differences almost trivial. And I put forward a question that no one I know of has asked: Is there any evidence (at all) of Putin undermining Medvedev’s authority as president? I answer to this question in the negative. I have no doubt that Putin raises his eyebrows from time to time regarding his protégés’ words or decisions, but at the same time I have never seen Putin publicly challenge the man he promoted and works for.
Putin knew what he walked into when accepting the position of prime minister. Does Putin “like being prime minister?” I have been asked this question so many times I can’t remember the number. My reply is that it does not matter. Putin is committed to his project for Russia from the time he was prime minister, then president, and now again as prime minister. Until I can be convinced otherwise, I contend that he wants Medvedev to succeed and will most likely back Russia’s incumbent president for re-election when the time comes.
The tandem is a political project, but not solely driven by anyone’s personal gain. Medvedev and Putin may have their differences and the same can be said about the political and financial elite that came to the fore during the Putin years. But consider the following: the current political elite have benefitted under Putin and Medvedev and the population at large agrees by and large. Thus, instead of looking for a Putin-Medvedev split, look at how they work together considering their differing approaches and style
No comments:
Post a Comment